European Airlines Cast Doubt On 2030 SAF Mandate

European airlines took the opportunity of the recent Airlines For Europe summit in Brussels to drop a sustainability bombshell: Without urgent action, they said, reaching 6% usage of sustainable aviation fuel  in 2030—required under new European mandates—will not be achievable.

The ReFuelEU Aviation mandates that came into force at the beginning of this year—starting with a requirement for 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) usage—were aimed at creating demand certainty and in turn promoting investment in SAF production.

• ReFuelEU Aviation requirement rises to 6% SAF in 2030
• EC says SAF targets are “realistic and feasible”

But airlines say that while the first target is feasible, that is not the case for the jump to 6% in 2030.

Airline CEOs at the March 27 event warned that as things stand, there will not be sufficient volume to meet the 2030 mandate—a controversial warning that Neste, the world’s biggest SAF producer, rejected out of hand.

Nevertheless, it does come at a time when progress away from fossil fuels seems to have gone into reverse.

The Airlines For Europe (A4E) event took place a month after oil giant BP announced it would be investing less in renewables and as a new U.S. president is promoting pro-fossil fuel policies.

“If you look at what is going to happen with [President Donald] Trump in the White House for the next number of years, I don’t think anybody is going to take a risk investing in SAF,” Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said. “They’re going to force the fossil fuel companies to increase production. I think there’s a very significant likelihood of supply rising and prices falling.”

“What we are saying is that, unless something changes, it is going to be impossible to comply with the mandates, and the only solution is to move the date,” said Luis Gallego, CEO of International Airlines Group. “[It is] science, but not rocket science, to say that this target is probably not realistic,” Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr said.

“Show us where the SAF is,” challenged Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith. “The SAF does not exist. We don’t see a path toward the amount we need to reach the mandate.”

The A4E CEOs’ warnings came amid signs of industry doubts over aviation’s overarching 2050 net-zero goal, to which the International Air Transport Association (IATA) committed in 2021.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading Americas conference in March that the industry would have to review its target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

“We are going to have to revisit it. We are not making as strong progress on [sustainable aviation fuel] as we thought,” Walsh said March 3.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury echoed that comment at the Airbus Summit in March, saying that the goal could take a bit more time to reach. Airbus also recently pushed back its hydrogen propulsion development plans.

But the A4E CEOs insisted they are still committed to net zero in 2050. “We have no issue with net-zero 2050,” O’Leary said. “The only issue we have is that there is a clear pathway to it. I don’t see any reason why moving that 2030 cutoff to 2032 or 2034 in any way compromises getting to net zero by 2050.”

Highlighting the impact the warnings had made, A4E sent out a clarifying statement after the event saying it remains fully committed to decarbonization. “However, we are deeply concerned that the ReFuel legislation is failing to create the affordable SAF market it promised,” A4E said.  “Without urgent action in the coming months, the credibility of the mandate will be severely undermined—and a reassessment of the mandates will be needed.”

The comments coincided with a March 27 Boston Consulting Group report that warned: “While there is some renewed momentum in 2024 and 2025, commercial aviation faces a real risk that it will fall short of decarbonization goals.” The report noted that bio-SAF supplies are projected to fall 30% short of 2030 targets and e-SAF (synthetic SAF) 45% short.

Not everyone agrees. The European Commission (EC) said the current SAF targets are “realistic and feasible.”

One fuel supplier, Neste, also strongly disagreed. Alexander Kueper, vice president for renewable aviation at Neste, the world’s largest SAF producer, told Aviation Week on the sidelines of the event that the company’s SAF production capability is 1.5 million tons in 2025, including SAF production starting up at its site in Rotterdam, Netherlands. The expansion of the Rotterdam refinery will increase this to 2.2 million tons per year in 2027, once completed.

“There is enough SAF—even in 2030 there is enough,” Kueper said. “Two percent is 1 million tons, so 6% in 2030 is 3 million tons, not factoring in the growth. There’s not just Neste, with almost 3 million tons by 2030; there’s also all the others.” He conceded that “e-SAF is another story.

“I don’t know where the narrative comes from,” Kueper continued. “You can argue whether it is too expensive or not, but whether it is there or not shouldn’t be a question.”

Kueper also warned that moving the mandate target to the right would be bad news for the SAF industry. “The whole point about a mandate is that it provides demand certainty,” he noted. “If you retroactively change it, that will send a catastrophic signal to investment, [and] they won’t trust mandates again. You need to stick to what you have, otherwise you’re never going to recover from the loss of confidence.”

The EC is set to present its sustainable transport investment plan in the coming months—and airlines are counting on it to map out a path that shows how SAF targets can be achieved.

At the conference, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, EC commissioner for sustainable transport and tourism, said the topic is in his sights. “I recognize that public intervention is necessary to drive the adoption,” he said. “More effort and investment are needed to scale up e-SAF, which is a key part of our ambition.”