Europe’s aviation sector has just updated its roadmap to net zero. Airlines for Europe (A4E) managing director Ourania Georgoutsakou discusses what has changed since 2021 and whether net zero is actually achievable.
Subscribe Now
Don't miss a single episode. Subscribe to Aviation Week's Window Seat Podcast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get podcasts.
Discover all of our podcasts on our at aviationweek.com/podcasts.
Transcript
Victoria Moores :
Hello everyone and thank you for joining us for Window Seat, our Aviation Week Air Transport podcast. This week I'm joined by Ourania Georgoutsakou, managing director of Airlines for Europe (A4E), and that is a Brussels-based lobby group that represents European airlines. And to give you an idea of the size of A4E’s memberships, its airlines operate a combined fleet of over 3,600 aircraft, carrying around 718 million passengers each year. So, Ourania, welcome to the podcast and thank you for joining us.
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
Thank you for having me, Victoria. Good to be back.
Victoria Moores :
Now, today we're going to have a conversation about Europe's path to net zero and what that's based on is that recently you announced an update, along with all of the other European associations, about how European aviation is going to get to that industry-wide net zero target. To give a bit of background and context to that, you first issued a report in 2021, which was called Destination 2050. One of the things that was notable about that report is that it was, as far as I recall, the first regional roadmap to net zero. It broke down all of the various components into percentages about how you're going to get there, and it was done together with the other associations. It also included a reduction in demand caused by the cost of reaching net zero; passenger demand was expected to reduce by about 15% compared with a baseline scenario. That was followed by an updated report in 2023, which put a cost estimate on reaching net zero. And then just recently we've heard that you've issued a new report in 2025, updating where we're up to and what needs to be done, how those expectations have changed. So that's my first question for you Ourania is what's changed in this latest report? How has the thinking shifted since 2021?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
So, this report demonstrates that the original recipe, the original path for aviation to net zero, it's the right one. The ingredients are all correct. We're still basing ourselves on those four pillars of SAF, of better aircraft technology, of better air traffic management, and of economic measures. Those four pillars still stand, but what changes is the importance, the values that each of them, how much emissions each of them will contribute to reducing. And the first thing we see is that SAF now becomes really the most important pillar of the strategy. It's the single biggest contributor to emissions reductions, and it's the thing that will really drive most of our net zero pathway.
Victoria Moores :
That was big before, wasn't it? It was already a large proportion of the net zero savings, but that's grown.
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
Absolutely. It's now over 50% sustainable aviation fuel together with hydrogen is over 50% of the roadmap now. And SAF on its own is the biggest one. So that's the first big thing that changed. The other thing that has changed is that we now realize it's even more costly than we had calculated the first time round in 2021 and then again in 2023. And the reason for that is, again, SAF, at the time when we did the first model a few years ago, SAF was still a big word and not many people were making it, and we weren't really sure what it cost. This snapshot in time, the modeling was run back in, I think, summer 2024 and report was launched in the beginning of 2025. This snapshot in time takes stock of the prices that were actually on the market when we ran the model. And that shows that there is a big price increase compared to the first round.
Victoria Moores :
And when we're talking about a big price increase, obviously we are dealing with very large numbers to get to net zero. Anyway, that addition is €500 billion added to the cost estimate. So, we are now looking at €2.4 trillion euros to reach net zero. You mentioned in there as well that hydrogen technologies are part of the mix in this alternative propulsion, but I understand that's reduced since the original report.
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
We've adapted the model based on the information available at the time we ran it. So, indeed hydrogen at that time was brought a bit down because of the different timetable we have from aircraft manufacturers and the fact that we're going for smaller sized planes coming out first. So that means that the overall impact of hydrogen in the assumption we ran back in summer 2024 was decreased.
Victoria Moores :
And the final change that I've noticed in the new report is about this idea of passenger demand. So, originally we had 15% of the overall emission savings coming from passengers deciding not to travel. It seems that that additional cost has now increased that number to 19%. So, we're seeing a greater proportion of passengers deciding not to travel in the first place.
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
Fundamentally, yes. What we see in this model is that with the cost increasing so much that has a bigger impact on people's ability to travel by air. And that means that we expect to see less growth. We still see growth in this roadmap on an average, but we expect it to be dampened because of that cost. Now again, it's important to understand that that report, the report we've come out, is a snapshot in time. It's based on the assumptions we ran and the reality of 2024 when we ran that model. And I'm quite certain that in a few years’ time, my partners and Airlines for Europe will run another report to see what the status is based on the next reality that we will see, because this is always an ever-evolving market. When we did this the first time round, it was a recipe that no one had tested yet and which was talking about concepts that were still up in the air today. We have new aircraft in the skies, we have SAF fueling planes, we have mandates already in place since the 1st of January here in Europe. So, the world keeps evolving, so I expect that to evolve also.
Victoria Moores :
And the head of DG MOVE, which is the body that's responsible within the European Commission for air transport, she laid down that gauntlet and invited you to do an update within three years. One of the things that she also mentioned was that she believes that everything is on track to secure the amount of SAF that we need, particularly by 2030. And that all of the evidence is that this roadmap is possible. But what we are hearing in our general day-to-day reporting is some industry commentators, including sustainable aviation fuel producers, saying it's not a done deal yet, and casting skepticism on whether or not these goals are actually achievable. So, my question for you is, is it doable to get to net zero by 2050 at this stage?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
The review of the destination 2050 roadmap that we launched is showing that the recipe is still correct, that this can be done, that aviation can reach net zero. And it's also a warning call to national governments, to the European Commission, to investors public and private, that everybody needs to rally around and help us deliver on all this technology and on all this rollout of new staff, of new infrastructure, of new tools.
Victoria Moores :
Absolutely. And what we heard from ACI, which is the body that represents European airports, is that the challenge is far bigger than we thought—that that's what this updated report has really highlighted. So, I guess the question is what next in terms of action? One of the things that we heard at the briefing for the relaunch of this net zero strategy was the mention of lots of different European policies that are coming up. So, we've got the clean industrial deal and the sustainable transport investment plan. Now part of this is that the European aviation sector has called on the European Commission to come up with an industrial strategy for sustainable aviation fuel and mechanisms to bring down costs. And I'm wondering how does that fit with the policies that I just mentioned?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
I think it's very fair to be confused about the EU acronyms. We all spend our days having similar problems also when you're based in Brussels, like I am. So, if I try to get a bit of structure around all that, as an industry the five partner associations have called for an EU aviation strategy. So, a vision from the European Commission that will put together all the different elements that need to be put together so that we can achieve the Destination 2050 roadmap, so that we can achieve net zero. And that means we need the tools, the flexible financing to support investment in the SAF and support the people who are putting all the money into the new production technologies, into the new production sites. We need the instruments like the SAF allowances that will allow airlines to cover the significant cost gap between conventional fuel and sustainable aviation fuels.
We need the funding programs that support R&D and support deployment of new aircraft, of new air traffic management technologies. So, the clean industrial deal is one instrument that we expect to be published in the next few weeks. I think it's published at the end of February, is the current timetable, which will set out the general framework for the kind of flexibility in financial mechanisms and how do we support certain sectors which are hard to abate and need specific support from the EU. That's the first place where we want to see these incentives around SAF production and flexible finance and accessing private funding, in particular private investors, but also public investors to put that support there, because, let's be honest, governments don't have money for everything in life these days. So, we need to mobilize all the funding available wherever it can be found.
We'll have the sustainable transport investment plan that's expected later in the year, and that will be much more specific, we understand, to transport and, most likely, SAF. And we've put out some recommendations on how we're going to scale up SAF production here in Europe, and that's what we call the industrial strategy for SAF. So, we call it that. And if the commission wants to put in its clean industrial deal or it's in its sustainable transport investment plan, I'm not bothered as long as there's a clear framework out there that really incentivizes and gives us access to the finances we need and helps cover that cost gap.
Victoria Moores :
So, it sounds like this aviation strategy would almost be like a standalone strategy for the European Commission that would then inform the policies that are coming through that processing.
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
Exactly. It's supposed to be a framework so that we're all running along the same path and checking things off the same list. And when you look at the reports, you will find in the beginning that there's a set of policy recommendations. They're very detailed, they are drafted by the partner associations based on the scientific research done by our consultants based on the technical report and the technical findings. And it's our recommendations on what are the instruments and the tools and the policy changes and the thinking, the mindset that that needs to be applied across Europe, both in the European Commission, but also find its way in the European parliament and in national ministries and at heads of state level, so that we all deliver on decarbonization while keeping the market competitive and Europe therefore competitive.
Victoria Moores :
And what we saw with the original report back in 2021 was you also laid down the gauntlet to the European Commission in that version of the report. Did it work last time?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
I wasn't here when we launched it, but I can see what happened since. And what I can see and what we all see since the first report came out is that we've made some progress. It comes to R&D, and we've made definitely a lot of progress when it comes to regulation in Europe. And the bit that's really lacking and the bit that we really need to accelerate now—immediately, as soon as possible—is the implementation, the rollout, the support mechanisms. So, if you've been following, and hopefully you have been, those of you who are not Brussels-based or not very close to Europe, there is a definite mind shift here in Europe. We are talking more about what are the implications, the business and practical and operational implications of all the ambitious sustainability rules and agendas that we set out over the past five years.
And there's a lot more, I would like to say, pragmatism around how we're going to get there. And I hope—well beyond hope—I expect that that pragmatism will also be applied when it comes to aviation. Out of all the four transport modes that are, let's say, managed at European level, I think we are the one that's on track that has a plan and that is not in crisis. But yet, OK, so I have my neighbors here in my office are the automotive industry and they are struggling. In aviation, we are not struggling yet. We have a clear path, and we have clear rules and we have clear policies. And what we need now is for Europe to put in place the instruments that will make sure we reap the business opportunities and we remain competitive—and we cannot fail. We can't lose air transport in Europe.
Victoria Moores :
Absolutely. It's essential for that whole concept of European integration and connectivity. Now you mentioned there about the way that Europe has developed some very strong regulation over the last few years in response to the environmental challenges. One of the things that was said from the audience at the release of the report was effectively Europe is shooting itself in the foot, that it is subsidizing non-European airlines by putting this weight of regulatory cost and burden onto European carriers. And one of the things that I've noticed in my reporting is that when we're reporting on European SAF deals, so sustainable aviation fuel agreements, typically that supply at the moment is coming from the US. So, it seems as though the European policy is supporting US production, and I get the strong sense that wasn't what the EU intended. Is that what you are noticing?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
I certainly note that the cost of doing business in Europe has gone up and that definitely applies to aviation and to airlines. And I know from past experience in other sectors that that is the case in other parts of the market. And indeed that's a bit where I think Europe has become less naive. We had the report by the very masterful draggy who did a very good diagnosis of the patient, and the patient is suffering from way too much regulation and not enough pragmatism and instruments that allow us to make business and make money and grow our economies out of all the rules we make. And the prescription is very stark as well. It's about doing less rules, doing them better and really looking to mobilize the economy and help people make a living out of this agenda, quite frankly. So indeed, what I see is that, and what I hope changes in Europe, what I expect here to change, is the fact that we maintain the global leadership we have in technology. We have amazing aircraft and engine technology working with partners across the world here in Europe. We have really good ATM technology. We have really interesting companies, small and big, who want to invest in SAF. All of that is business opportunity for Europe and it makes sure that we can continue to fly competitively in Europe and decarbonize.
Victoria Moores :
Two closing points because we are up for time now. One of them is that a point that you are pushing for and campaigning for is booking claims. So that's where you don't have to have physical SAF available every single airport. And the second point is that we heard from DG CLIMA at the event that they don't see evidence of carbon leakage outside of Europe as a result of their regulation. And we heard from DG CLIMA, they laid down the gauntlet. They said, if you can as an industry produce evidence that our regulations are pushing emissions outside of Europe, show it to us. And, final points, wondered if you might respond to those two things.
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
A4E has consistently called for book and claim system. Why? Because you need that as a deployment tool until SAF becomes successful everywhere where it needs to be. And that's just pragmatism. I mean, at the beginning of every market, you can't have a new product available everywhere you need it. You need to think of how you're going to roll it out stage by stage until you get there. And frankly, I'm disappointed that nothing has come out from the European Commission recently on book and claim. We've been waiting for some kind of clear signal and publication for a few months now, and there's still nothing there. The report shows that we need to take action now. So, I'll very happily work with the European Commission across all its different directors, including CLIMA to give them the evidence they need. But I hope that the problem will be resolved way more efficiently than in the past, and that we don't spend our lives running studies for the next two years trying to establish whether there is a problem, when in fact there is a reality on the market that the cost of business is increasing and that has an impact on people's ability to fly.
And that becomes a humane problem in the end. I mean, here I am talking policy with people in a conference center in Brussels. I was talking also to someone yesterday over dinner who told me their father makes 500 euros a month, and a 50 euro flight is a big expense when you make that money. And I think that's the bit we need to remember here, that when we make policy in Brussels, we are impacting the lives of people who need to get places in order to do business or in order to see their families or because they too have the right to take a holiday once a year. And that is the world of industry, of airlines in any case for sure, associations such as mine, but also policymakers to make sure that we keep a framework and an aviation industry here in Europe that is able to deliver on that to make sure that people can get to where they want to be or where they need to be. And that is fundamental to Europe's competitiveness and continued connectivity. And I hope that that is the logic that prevails. But on the studies and evidence point, I confirm that there's at least three studies on the same point underway as we speak. So, I'm hoping that that evidence will be there within the next few weeks rather than years and that we can act upon it also within the next two weeks.
Victoria Moores :
And the focus of those studies is the idea of carbon leakage?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
Absolutely. Carbon leakage, competitive impact of the EU measures on aviation more generally, airlines in particular. How can we create the level playing field between European passengers and airlines and non-Europeans? How do we just evenly distribute the cost and how do we keep this market competitive globally? From an airline perspective, what we're fighting for here, what I fight for here in Brussels as Airlines for Europe, is not simply people's right to fly. Fundamentally, what I care about is where will they fly to? Who will fly them there and how do they get there, by which hub? That's the bit that I care about here in Europe. I don't think people will stop flying, and I don't think people should stop flying. I think we should make a robust market to give people the options they need.
Victoria Moores :
And the challenge is really at its center, how do we fund this huge cost, this cost that is growing to reach that end destination?
Ourania Georgoutsakou :
I think my message and the message of all the partners from Destination 2050 after this report, after the review of the roadmap, is that this can still be done, and it can be done with investors, with governments, and with the EU. So, the cost is not insurmountable, and the instruments are right in front of us. There's nothing new that needs to be created. We have plans for a clean industrial deal, we have plans for [untranslated 20:28], we have all the tools we need. I'm not asking for extra money; I'm asking for a clearer framework. I'm asking for courage and I'm asking for people to just roll out, really, decarbonization. It can be done. It's in front of us. We just need to go now. We need to board.
Victoria Moores :
Ourania, that's all that we've got time for today. So, I want to thank you so much for joining us, and thanks also to our producers, Guy Ferneyhough and Cory Hitt, and of course a huge thank you to you, our listeners for following Window Seat. Make sure you don't miss us each week by subscribing to the Window Seat podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen. This is Victoria Moores disembarking from Window Seat.
Related Content
