India’s MRO industry is rapidly evolving to meet new and increasing demands, as domestic airlines will continue to add new aircraft every month for the next decade. On this backdrop, ratings agency Crisil forecasts that the Indian MRO industry is expected to see revenue grow 50% in 2026 to approximately 45 billion rupees (approximately $518 million).
Crisil’s study is based on three leading MRO operators in the country: Air India Engineering Services Limited, GMR Aero Technic and Air Works, which together account for almost 90% of the Indian MRO sector’s revenue. The predicted 50% revenue growth is also based on recent changes in government policy that will benefit the MRO industry, such as the reduction in goods and service tax on aircraft components and services. The reduction has led to lower rental costs and eliminated royalty charges on revenue, making India an attractive destination for MRO operations.
“The increase in scale will enhance profitability margins which along with range bound debt levels should improve debt protection metrics and strengthen credit profiles,” Crisil’s report says.
Aviation Week Network’s Commercial Fleet and MRO Forecast also projects a 50% increase in MRO demand, but this is expected to occur closer to 2029 rather than next year, as predicted by Crisil.
Consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory predicts the total domestic demand for MRO growth in India to grow by 27% or more, pending inflation, from 2025-26. “Indian MRO suppliers have good opportunities to grow their market shares over time in both domestic and international markets, driven by [goods and service] tax reduction and capacity additions as seen at several suppliers,” says Jonas Murby, principal at AeroDynamic Advisory.
Crisil further expects India’s domestic fleet to grow by 20-25% by 2026, aided not just by new aircraft but also through reactivating aircraft currently grounded by engine issues. The report also projects that redelivery checks will increase by 10% by 2026 compared to 2024.
With Indian airlines placing record aircraft orders, infrastructure development is accelerating at an unprecedented pace, including new airports, aerospace hubs, MRO facilities and hangars.
AeroDynamic Advisory predicts Indian carriers’ scheduled capacity will increase by 20% this year over 2024 traffic. “This is driven by new deliveries and parked [Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan-powered] aircraft coming back into service,” Murby adds.
Murby feels that the key to achieving this will be whether Indian MRO capacity additions set for 2025-26 can scale up operations quickly enough. However, AeroDynamic Advisory sees Indian transition checks as a wild card.
“Given that aircraft are in short supply, lessors are likely to prefer suppliers with a track record in this field. On the other hand, the system is short of MRO capacity, which could mean opportunities for Indian MRO suppliers,” Murby says.
Shortly after Crisil released its predictions about India’s MRO growth, Boeing released predictions, based on its Commercial Market Outlook 2024-43, that airlines in India and South Asia are expected to add about 2,835 commercial aircraft to their fleet in the next two decades. This figure is 130 aircraft larger than Boeing’s 20-year prediction from last year. Boeing predicts that single-aisle aircraft will comprise 2,445 of these deliveries, while widebody fleet size will quadruple after the addition of 370 aircraft. According to Aviation Week Network data, Indian airlines are expected to take delivery of over nearly 1,400 new aircraft over the next decade, with 77 deliveries scheduled this year.
Boeing also expects the region's air traffic will grow more than 7% annually through 2043. "People will have greater access to air travel, and the region's airlines will require a modern fuel-efficient fleet to meet increased demand over the next two decades," said Ashwin Naidu, Boeing's managing director of commercial marketing for India and South Asia.
While Indian MROs have made significant strides in line maintenance, airframe checks and redelivery services, the critical challenge remains in engine maintenance, which is predominantly outsourced. Developing domestic capabilities in this area is essential to retaining a larger share of engine MRO revenues within the country and solidifying India’s position as a global MRO hub.
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