When it comes to the business prospects of private aviation, the sector is no stranger to the need to prove itself. After each economic recession—and especially after the Great Recession and financial crisis of 2008—worries mounted over the sector’s financial future, only to see them ease later as boom times drove private flying.
Going into 2025—with the year already pegged to include uncertainty over changing U.S. and global market conditions—financial analysts and pundits continue to debate the state of the sector. In summary, many see good times continuing, but are wary of what is proverbially around the corner.
Ron Epstein, the senior aerospace and defense analyst at Bank of America, said on a late-December podcast to expect a proverbial updraft in 2025. “I think the business jet environment is actually going to be quite good next year, given changes in tax policy. Maybe we’ll see accelerated [tax] depreciation come back, and the fundamental environment for business aviation could be quite good.”
Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, echoed the sentiment. “The broader macroenvironment, things are going to be pretty good—it’s not just business jets per Ron—with one giant wild card: tariffs and trade war.”
At Jefferies, analysts also see reason for optimism in general. Across the five major business jet OEMs, they forecast delivery growth of 11% in 2025 compared with 2024, with 695 deliveries this year, according to a December report. That is better than 2019 deliveries of 652, although it is a year later than previously expected as supplier shortfalls and Textron’s summer 2024 labor strike curbed deliveries to 623 last year.
Macroeconomics
Still, the macroeconomic environment is the biggest factor for private aviation’s prospects. A traditional recession alone can damper business, and on average, they happen about every seven years—and 2025 marks five years from the COVID-19 pandemic low. Add renewed concerns over protectionist policies in key markets such as the U.S., and global conditions merit a watchful eye.
To be sure, analysts do not expect a falloff. After a giant boost for business aviation’s popularity post-pandemic, the strong market tailwinds have softened in recent years to allow things like the supply chain and used prices to catch up with demand and avoid a bubble, according to the Aviation Week 2025 Fleet and MRO Forecasts. Nearly all categories of aircraft have seen and are expected to continue to see more sustainable market growth given these trends. Normal pre-buy checks, buyer power influences and more thoughtful purchases are anecdotally making a comeback, signaling a more rational market behavior on the used side, but new-build prices have maintained their pricing power given healthy backlogs, according to Aviation Week.
Brian Kough, senior director for forecasts and aerospace insights at Aviation Week Network, sees shifts in the way users access private aviation, with charter and fractional operations jumping ahead at the expense of private ownership and corporate activities. While international borders are fully open, environmental concerns remain an anchor on growth in some markets.
Segments
What is more, according to George Ferguson and Melissa Balzano of Bloomberg Intelligence, much depends on specific niches. They analyzed aircraft owned by large fleet operators versus private individuals or corporations and found that an economic downturn or reduced private flying demand might prompt operators to scale back and sell planes.
“Private aviation enjoyed a jump in demand during the pandemic that may be slowing, a trend that could hurt business plans, especially for charter and fractional operators, and lead to some exits,” they said in a November report.
Embraer, Textron and Bombardier have the greatest percentage of existing aircraft with private jet fleet owners, increasing the risk of significant aircraft being sold on the secondary market, or fewer deliveries if demand for private travel slows. Dassault and Gulfstream have the smallest exposure, which Ferguson and Balzano said is due to strong product lineups and what are believed to be loyal, very high-net-worth customers.
Others see even greater headwinds. “With a reduced appetite for owning a private jet, manufacturers like Textron's Cessna, Bombardier and Embraer face significant exposure,” said AirX Chairman John Matthews on LinkedIn in late November. “The market dynamics signal a worrying situation for an industry at the crossroads of change.”
Citing Bloomberg Intelligence data, Matthews said Embraer's best-selling jets—the Phenom 300 and Praetor 500—are particularly exposed, with 33% and 47% of their fleets, respectively, under operators such as NetJets and Flexjet. Bombardier has 16% of its aircraft in fleet operators, notably the Challenger 300, 350 and 3500 models, which dominate charter fleets.
“Textron, however, faces the sharpest blow: Wheels Up, a key operator, has announced plans to offload 76 Textron jets, a move that could disrupt both the secondary market and new sales,” he says. “Textron's reliance on Wheels Up has left it particularly vulnerable.”
Yet for now, activity appears to be holding. According to WingX, a JetNet company, 3.6 million business jet departures were recorded in 2024, 1% off compared with 2023 and 2022. Last year was 59% greater than pandemic-low 2020 and 30% ahead of 2019. Better yet, December 2024 activity was 7% ahead of the same month a year before.
WingX declared 2024 the year of the fractional operator. They flew almost 700,000 business jet sectors in 2024, more than any of the last five years. Contrast that with corporate flight departments flying 11% fewer than last year, and 12% fewer than 2019.
“Post-COVID demand for business aviation looks strong, notably in the U.S., where activity is well ahead of 2019. December ended ahead of last year, marking a strong end to the year,” WingX said in its last weekly bulletin of 2024. “Fractional operators have made large gains compared to the last five years, contrasting corporate flight department activity. Appetite for business aviation in Europe remains resilient, although small gains compared to pre-pandemic 2019.”
Private aviation may experience turbulence in the future, but for now, the flightpath looks good to investors.
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