Podcast: Airbus Outlines The Future Of Sustainable Air Travel

Listen in as Aviation Week editors report from the Airbus Summit in Toulouse.

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Rush transcript

Karen Walker:

Hello everyone and thank you for joining us for Window Seat Aviation Week Air Transport Podcast. I'm Air Transport World and Group Air Transport Editor-in-Chief Karen Walker. Welcome on board. This week I'm joined by my colleagues, Jens Flottau, Commercial Director at Aviation Week and Thierry Dubois, the European technology editor at Aviation Week.

So, great to be with you both and actually really exciting because we're sitting here in Toulouse in the headquarters of Airbus and we're here because Airbus is holding a summit and giving us lots of briefings and they are highly focused on sustainability and initiatives and technologies that are going on generally on sustainability effort in aviation in many cases. More specifically, on how the aviation sector is going to meet these 2050 goals to be carbon net zero. And what we have been learning already this morning is just how difficult a challenge that is going to be technologically.

So, I'm going to start with Jens, because the opening here today was from the Airbus CEO, Guillaume Faury. He gave us a bit of a real top line insight on the focus here. What did you hear there, Jens?

Jens Flottau:

Yeah, I mean, first of all, the setting here is really is a big PR event for Airbus. They want to promote their ambition, their initiatives in terms of almost entirely sustainability efforts this year really. But he was honest enough to say that the industry isn't moving fast enough yet. He says that ambition is not yet matched by action. So, that's the opening setting so to say, to come here and say, "Look guys, we need to grow faster. All of us as an industry and we need to launch more and more of these initiatives to meet our targets."

Karen Walker:

What were your thoughts, Thierry?

Thierry Dubois:

Absolutely, I agree with Jens. And your employee said something like, "The time for excuses is over." And I think he was alluding... It's my take, but I think he was alluding to the 2% to 3% argument that aviation has been using for decades, which is aviation is only 2% or 3% of the world's CO2 emissions and I think that was a very bad excuse. And for he said, "The time for excuses is over." And yes, we need to accelerate, we need to go much faster.

Karen Walker:

Another phrase he had was there's nowhere to hide, and I think that was also important to stress because to some extent the industry has been able to hide for a long while on the sustainability front. But post-pandemic, the focus has just become so sharp and maybe because the only alternative is for transport not to grow. And we heard some of the panelists today saying that's not an option. So, if the airline industry wants to continue to grow and they've been typically the last few years seeing 5% annual growth, if you take out the effect of the pandemic, then a lot more has got to be done to be net zero.

So, we heard a lot of discussion and detail today including some news announcements about some of those technological initiatives. Now, Thierry, your technology editor at Aviation Week, so I know that you understand this far better than I do. So, I'm so glad you joined us because you can maybe give us some of the highlights of what you heard this morning. Let's start with the ZEROe hydrogen cell initiatives.

Thierry Dubois:

Thus far, ZEROe was essentially about burning hydrogen in gas turbines. The bottom line was that, and they were also saying, "We are also considering fuel cells." Which is another way of using hydrogen. So, the first example, gas turbines that's very close to today's engines, today's turbo fans with a different view. The other way to use hydrogen with fuel cells is to produce electricity on board and use it in an electric motor, that itself rotates propeller. So, it's closer to what we know in turboprops.

And today, what they announce is stronger effort in the second option, which is fuel cell. So, they are going to use their A380 testbed to be modified as a hydrogen testbed. I think they say multimodal anyway, it'll be able to support both test hydrogen engine, test hydrogen gas turbine, so a slightly modified GE engine. And also, it would be able to support basically a turboprop with a fuel cell inside. So, I shouldn't say a turboprop, it would be a fuel cell propeller, so that's quite a big announcement. So they are pursuing both options in parallel.

So, what could it change from the operator's view? Well, the difference between the two options from an operator's perspective could be the speed. So, this still has to be determined, but it's likely that a gas turbine fueled with hydrogen would be roughly speaking as fast with power in aircraft as fast as today's, and it's likely that the fuel selection would result in a slightly slower aircraft. Anyway, they are pursuing both options, which with each have their benefits and shortcomings. It'd be very interesting to follow in the coming years.

Jens Flottau:

It could have large ramifications for the industry structure as well. Engine manufacturers would be largely... Would be effective, of course, but they could assume that the basis for future project would be their current engines. Now, if you go for fuel cells, that's a totally different architecture and it's not a given that the current engine OEMs would be the ones building. Strategically, what Airbus does here is open up the sphere for more options even on the business side.

Karen Walker:

So, this will fly next year, did I hear that correctly on the A380 demonstrator?

Thierry Dubois:

It's a bit later than that. I think the first flights would be starting in 2026 and I think they would start with a turbofan, and I understand that fuel cell would follow. But the timeframe, the time window is 2026 to 2028 for the flight campaign. And I don't think we mention is that the common point between the two technologies is they use hydrogen. They are thinking a lot about what others calls the ecosystem run hydrogen. Of course, if you have a hydrogen aircraft, you need a hydrogen infrastructure on the ground. So, then they are no longer thinking in terms of launch customer for new aircraft. They're thinking in terms of a launch cluster. So, not only the customer has to take delivery of the aircraft, but he has to make sure that the proper infrastructure is at his home base, for example. Meaning that hydrogen production could be done locally or not too far for it to be transported in efficient way.

For that reason, Airbus has multiple partnerships with hydrogen companies. So, today's hydrogen producers such as Linde and Air Liquide. It has multiple partnership with airlines such as Delta in the US or easyJet in Europe, Korean Air as well, and they all are studying how to start a hydrogen cluster. So, for example, that would be an airport with proper infrastructure and enough aircraft to make the infrastructure worth building. So, it would be maybe not only one aircraft for one airline in the beginning, but at least they would need several aircraft and several airlines to make it worth.

Karen Walker:

And we heard like, say that, they're doing all these partnerships with airlines around the world and other companies and organizations, but also with airports for that reason too. Because you've got that other big infrastructure change of about having the liquid hydrogen available where it's needed at the airport. So, Changi was mentioned, VINCI Airports group here in Europe, and that's what struck me just listening to some of these briefs this morning was just the enormity of the change that will be needed. This isn't just about building a new aircraft or engine. This is about an entirely different type of ecosystem ultimately and you realize the extent of that. What was your take on that, Jens?

Jens Flottau:

Yeah, I mean, we have to keep in mind that this is all really, really, as you say, it's extremely complex. I mean, there's so many different parties involved. We also have to keep in mind it's very, very long term. So, even if Airbus manages to deliver that aircraft in 2035, it'll be maybe a large regional aircraft, but it won't touch the main line. And, of course, not the long haul markets and that's my grain of salt here.

The industry is still at risk of stalling new developments in the short term because, importantly, Boeing just said they're not going to build a MMA type of aircraft or a max successor for the time being. They will not launch it before the turn of the next decade. And, of course, as a consequence, Airbus has no incentive to move in the short term. The engine manufacturers don't have new applications for which to build new engines, even though I am personally convinced that there would be enough technology available now to make a move. So, everything we are hearing here is great, but it's very long term and I'm concerned that in the short term the industry, the Airbus included isn't doing enough.

Karen Walker:

And which is actually what Guillaume was saying at the outset, wasn't he? There's a lot being done, and we heard about the ZEROe team being, what they said they didn't count on was the enthusiasm and energy of that team that they brought together pretty quick, but it's still probably not happening first enough. Now, the other aspect of this, of course, that sort of going towards this net zero goal and very critical, important part of this is the SAF, Sustainable Aviation Fuel initiative. And essentially, planes are using that every day already, but they need to massively grow the use of it, which means massively growing the availability of staff.

So, we had a whole panel talking about that. There was also an announcement there that Airbus has partnered with the world's biggest supplier of SAF, which is Neste. I actually thought there was an interesting number there that came up where, like I say, SAF is the world's biggest supplier of SAF right now, but when he's talked about the numbers of the supplying it... Producing. I'm sorry. Producing a tiny proportion of SAF compared with what's needed, so a long way to go on that. What were the key things that you were hearing Thierry, about where they're going on SAF?

Thierry Dubois:

Well, the optimistic view was made by one of the panelists, I think it was the Air France representative. He said that the momentum is there, at least. So, indeed the percentage of SAF used today is still very low and we are challenged to meet the target in 2030. But the momentum is there, because if you add all the investments that are being made today and plan for the coming few years, for example, one of the numbers that was given was 2.3... Sorry, 2.2 millions of tons will be produced per year from 2026, I think, something like that.

Quite a fast acceleration at least, but what Neste representative said about talking to airlines is that, well, big groups, we all know of, Air France, et cetera. They know what SAF is and they're very much willing to invest but there are still a number of carriers that have no clue on SAF and a number of pilots who have no clue on SAF. And Thorsten Lange, the Neste representative told me, well, some pilots still say, "I'm not flying on french fries." Because they're not confident with the material that is being used as a source for the SAF.

Karen Walker:

Yeah. And in fact, on that panel was the head of sustainability at Air France. What did you hear from Air France, Jens? I mean, Air France KLM, that group has certainly been one of the leaders in sustainability efforts, but I think he was still telling a pretty cautious, cautious tale.

Jens Flottau:

Yeah, I mean they're definitely one of the leaders that were most ambitious. They gave themselves among the most ambitious targets, they are trying to be as BTI certified. What was interesting is that he did confirm that new behavior is emerging among customers. Many airlines have been offering SAF offsets as part of the booking processes, but customers haven't picked it up. People weren't prepared to pay for this, but he said that the trend is turning, people are more conscious of it. And interestingly enough, it's the corporates who are driving this because they themselves have to be mindful of their own CO2 balance and are forced by their own to buy credits to meet their own targets for private trips. It's not yet the case, but if he's right, it's moving slowly into the right direction.

Thierry Dubois:

I think SAF epitomizes how late the industry is. Thorsten Lange, the Neste representative said, "Well, we've lost 10 years, we could have done all this. We could have at that point 10 years ago." And that quote could be applied to, basically, everything in the aircraft industry, in the aerospace industry because we've known for decades about global warming.

Jens Flottau:

Yeah. And the industry is really at risk of losing not 10 years but 20 years. I'm exaggerating a little bit because I know there's stuff going on now, but it has to be short-term, medium-term, and long-term at the same time. And I don't see the short-term element. I see the medium-term. I see the long-term element. I don't see the short-term element.

Thierry Dubois:

Which gives a good argument to those who encourage curbing flights 'cause they say new technologies are not on, or on the other horizon for 10 years from now at least. So, they say the short-term solution is just to curb flights.

Karen Walker:

And I think why you're hearing so much of a more of a dire warning of we've got to really pick up the pace. It's exactly what is going on this year, and what you're seeing and hearing at this summit is just like, we've lost too much time already. And so, I think that that was an interesting element here. You mentioned Thorsten at Neste, I thought it was interesting what he said was that time and again, they turn up and they're the leaders every time. And he said, and everybody else seems to be in a sort of wait and see what Neste does.

Now, you could argue that that was a bit of self-promotion, but I suspect that's a truth is that there's a lot of people just feel that it's too expensive to risk serious investment, let somebody else be the... But now, given how much they need to catch up, that's not good enough to just have one key player. They've all got to be doing that and we did hear a lot about... Talk about collaboration and partnership, of course.

Thierry Dubois:

Lange said he's happy to cooperate with companies that would otherwise be competitors.

Karen Walker:

A big question in all of this is the cost. We all know that even in good times this industry, the airline industry operates on very thin margins compared with many sectors. And, of course, it's still suffering badly financially from the effects of the pandemic. And the Air France executive talked about the billions of Euro, that this is an investment of that size for Air France and the Air France KLM group. And I mean, he was essentially saying some of the way they're going to get some of that money back is through the price of the ticket, correct?

Jens Flottau:

Yeah. I mean, that's a kind of a harsh reality that the industry has to face. I mean, this is going to be an extremely, extremely expensive process. All the investment going to this technology and then the operation of... If we go for hydrogen aircraft. Hydrogen aircraft will be more expensive to operate just because of the cost of producing green hydrogen compared to kerosene today. Air travel will become more expensive.

There's an argument out there that it should become more expensive to get rid of some of the unnecessary travel. Of course, not everyone will agree with that, but it's a fact. It will happen and it's something the airlines will have to take into account in their business models. They will have to live with higher energy costs forever and that may change some of the strategies for sure.

Karen Walker:

Yeah, that question was actually put to one of the panelists, and I think it's particularly clear when you look at the very complicated, expensive developments for new types of propulsion and does this mean that the industry has to develop a new business model? And we know that airlines are inherently not best adapting those models. You could argue that Herb Kelleher and Southwest was probably the last major change of someone developing a different model, but it doesn't happen easily. Correct, Thierry?

Thierry Dubois:

Absolutely. And I think one of the challenges for the carriers is that as there is no global regulation about SAF yet. It may turn out that some carriers act first, they move first and therefore they incur those costs first. So, they could find themselves at a disadvantage in terms of revenues or balance between revenues and costs earlier than others. So, for companies like Air France, it's not the only one that. It's quite bold to move first.

Karen Walker:

Jens and Thierry, thank you so much for joining me on this podcast. It is fantastic to be here in Toulouse, France headquarters of Airbus. There's a lot more briefings still to come, but we got some good insights I thought this morning and very exciting. If I literally look at the window here, there's an Airbus A350 waiting, and I know you are both flying to Munich and to Airbus' technological facility in Munich there tonight. And so, you'll be hearing more tomorrow as well.

So, again, thank you very much for joining me and most of all, thank you so much to our listeners. I hope you enjoyed this podcast and please join us next week. Remember to sign up for us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you'd like to listen to us.