Podcast: Comac Steals The Show At Singapore—Should Boeing And Airbus Be Worried?

Listen in as editors at Singapore Airshow discuss Comac's starring role, the C919's prospects in today's market and what this could mean for the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.

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Transcript

Christine Boynton  

Welcome to this week's Check 6 Podcast. I'm Christine Boynton, Aviation Week Editor for Air Transport, and today you find us at the Singapore Airshow at the end of a very busy Day Two. Joining me are Aviation Week editors, Guy Norris, Chen Chuanren, Joe Anselmo and Jens Flottau.

So let's jump in with the thing that everyone's talking about at the show, Comac and the C919. We saw it fly. We've witnessed an order. But our team also actually got on board. So, Guy, I know you filmed a video, I haven't had a chance to watch it yet, but I'm dying to know, what was that like?

Guy Norris:           

 It was just what I hoped for actually. Because I sat in the cabin mock-up at Paris I think it was, right, Jens? Is that where I think it was? A few years ago now, probably a decade. And lo and behold, it delivered. It's what I hoped it would look like. It felt slightly wider than an A320, very roomy. I guess, yeah, it was just what I expected. Of course, the most impressive thing from my perspective was the flight deck which was very modern, side stick controls, flat displays, flat screens. And no, it was, generally it felt like a 21st century airliner. Very impressive.

Christine Boynton    

Chuanren, you covered Comac's orders on day one. But in addition to the orders, there were a couple of firsts for them at this year's Singapore Airshow, can you get into that a little bit?

Chen Chuanren:    

 The order is actually the first of any kind outside of mainland China. And the order is, of course, for 40 C919s and 10 ARJ21s. And on top of that, the lessor from Hainan has also acquired six ARJ21s in various variants, although they didn't reveal the breakdown, this could include freighters, medivac evacuation versions or even their firefighting versions.

Christine Boynton 

 And this isn't the first airshow we've seen Comac at, but the optics maybe are a little bit different this time, is that fair to say, Joe? I'm going to throw this one over to you.

Joe Anselmo:    

 Yeah, Christine. Guy, Jens and I have covered more air shows than I care to admit. But going back say the last 15 years, there was always a trend, Airbus and Boeing would always have lots of commercial aircraft on display. And then at the end of all the chalets, there's this little foreboding looking chalet that said Comac. There was never anyone out front. You didn't dare walk inside.

 It's almost flipped this time. Boeing doesn't have a chalet, they don't have any civil aircraft on display. And Comac has a whole bunch of C919s and ARJ21s on display. So those are the optics.

 The other side of the optics is the reality. And I do think we need to pause and say this doesn't mean that all of a sudden it's going to be Airbus and Comac and Boeing's going away. I'd like to quote -- Rob Spingarn is a longtime aerospace analyst and he wrote to his clients last month and he said, "It will be a cold day in hell before a major Western airline customer cancels 737 MAX orders in favor of Comac's C919."

So I do think we have to acknowledge that this is a marker for Comac, it's certainly historic, but they still have a long way to go.

Christine Boynton   

Chuanren, did you want to jump in there?

Chen Chuanren:     

 Yeah, I do want to add that I happen to bump into IATA DG Willie Walsh at the Comac booth. So he was being briefed by Comac. And he did say there's of course a lot of airlines being interested in the aircraft, but he does acknowledge that it would take time. But he gave reference to the Airbus A320 when it was first unveiled in the 1980s. And look at where the A320 is now.

And he also revealed that even Western airlines have been speaking to Comac on what kind of, the mentality of Western airliners, what kind of things they're looking out for, maintenance, spares and things like that. So I think he's quite optimistic, but we'll see.

Christine Boynton  

 Jens, I think Airbus shared some thoughts with you on this, are they nervous?

Jens Flottau:      

No, they're not nervous. At least they claim they're not nervous. But they are concerned for several reasons, the first one being yes, the C919 will not be an export success anytime soon. But it will be sold inside China, and that will make the Chinese domestic market smaller for both Boeing and Airbus. And we're talking big numbers, hundreds of aircraft that they're not selling to China because there is now an aircraft made in China. And so it is painful to a degree.

 The second angle there is that obviously Airbus recognizes that this is a step in the development of the Chinese aviation industry. No one really expected the C919 to become a huge international success. It's clearly a step up from the ARJ21, which we could basically see as the previous generation aircraft. But there will be other aircraft following the C919. And given what we see in terms of improvements from the ARJ21 to the C919 to what will likely come next, they do have reason to be concerned, maybe not for the next three, five years, but for the next 10-20 years, yeah, absolutely.

Christine Boynton   

Guy, I think you wanted to jump in here.

Guy Norris:         

I was just going to follow up to say that -- Jens was just saying there -- that it clearly is an evolutionary leap that goes well beyond perhaps the evolutionary path we've seen previously in the West even. What you saw with the ARJ21, that Jens mentioned there, was a design that really came out of early McDonnell Douglas work in the 1980s in support of the production line set up in Shanghai. And of course that's taken 20, 30 years to really materially become a reality.

But with the C919, that timeline was compressed considerably. And what you're seeing out is there today is the results of all that. It's got every single bit of high technology in overall design you'd expect. Plus it's integrated with Western supplied avionics and engines. In other words, areas where if you're looking for a certification path to the future, you would have already the backing of a Western built system.

And so I think, again as Jens is saying, you're looking really at a generational leap that's come a lot quicker perhaps. And it's reality, it's here, it's flying in the flying display. There's a lot of aircraft out on the static display that are either ARJ21s or the C919. And of course it's an actual aircraft that's already being delivered to China Eastern and it's in service, it's taking a break to be here. In September, they signed an order for another hundred to be delivered through 2030. And as we've mentioned, it's taking away from Airbus and Boeing. So either way you look at it, it's something that should be looked at seriously.

Joe Anselmo:         

I would just like to point out that one of the reasons we're talking so much about Comac and C919 at this airshow is that they have never come to an international airshow outside of China with such force. I don't believe they've ever announced an order outside of China until this airshow. So that's the marker.

  But I would also caution, you have to look at history, Airbus was established in 1970, they didn't catch up to Boeing for 30 years. So, this is a hard business to get into. It takes years and years. And look, 30 years ago people were laughing at the Chinese space program. They're not laughing anymore at that. They're not laughing at the Chinese hypersonic program, which some people think leads the United States. It's really got the US scared. So Comac will come up.

 But I also think, and Guy, you tell me, I mean, the major showstopper here is propulsion. They have to rely on Western engines right now. They are nowhere near developing world-class engines in China, are they?

Guy Norris:      

 Well, that's right. I mean, we should differentiate here between China's military engine capability, which has come on leaps and bounds in the past decade or two. And you're really seeing the result of the Chinese policy/strategic plan to funnel investment into replacing former Soviet and Russian built/supplied military engines.

I think that a lot of that technology will spill over into the commercial programs, especially in terms of high temperature alloys and the sort of things at the heart of engines which are incredibly difficult to do, and which has been the reason why China has lagged so far behind.

So again, even in that sense, I think there is a commercial engine being developed indigenously for the 919. It's in flight test right now. So it's coming. But right now and probably for the next decade, it's going to be CFM LEAPs, which will be the mainstay of that powerplant.

But Joe's absolutely right. And just one last thing also. We should mention that what's coming next in behind the 919, apart from the new derivatives, is the wide body, the 929. People have laughed again in the West at that. I don't think they should be laughing that long because we've seen other engine makers also talking to Comac about what their plans are.

Jens Flottau:        

And again, going back to what Joe said, in fairness, in the West, it's also about generational leaps. It does take Airbus and Boeing also decades to really make jumps in their product development from the 737-200 to the 300 to the NG to the MAX. I mean, if you look at how long that took, and here comes China without a product, they're now at stage one, it will take them probably 10-15 years for the next stage. But that's not dissimilar to what we've seen in the West.

Christine Boynton:  

And did Embraer share some thoughts with you, Jens, about what's coming next for them?

Jens Flottau:               

Well, of course they're in a different market. They would say they're in a similar market because they're building small narrowbodies. We asked them today, we were talking to the CEO, Francisco Gomes Neto. Many people have been wondering whether they should go into the larger narrowbody market with Boeing's weakness now, this being kind of a window of opportunity for them. But they're very careful. Embraer has a tradition of being very conservative in terms of risk, they don't want to take risks.

And here again they're saying, we know that opportunity exists, but we're coming from a low base, our production is lower, our revenues are relatively low, we want to build up the company first before we make that call. Gomes Neto told us today that it'll be a couple of years before they will make a decision. At least I have to say he didn't rule out that they are going larger. But don't expect anything very soon.

Guy Norris:               

Talking about what to expect at least in the near term anyway, we did get a chance to sit down with JetZero here at the show, got an update from them. And it's interesting to note that their scaled demonstrator of the blended wing body, their concept that they're building for the US Air Force, is about to fly imminently. So they're just waiting for a few lake beds in California to drain away a little bit so they've got some options for diversions. But anyway, they are looking at getting into the air very soon with the scaled demonstrator.

 And they're also bringing together a gang of operators in the next couple of weeks to help them really figure out, from the commercial side at least, where they ought to be looking for the design because it's a whole new space inside a blended wing body. So yeah, that was an interesting chat we had with them.

Christine Boynton     

Well, before we wrap up, I think maybe we've all had a chance to walk around on the floor and see some of the interesting displays, a lot of cool things to see, of course the fan favorite LEAP Lego engine is here. But one thing that caught my eye is something called the AirFish. So Guy, what is the AirFish and is it more air or fish?

Guy Norris:          

You're absolutely right. I think actually, Chuanren, you should talk a little bit about it because you did the original footwork on the story, didn't you?

Chen Chuanren:     

AirFish is a wing-in-ground effect aircraft developed by a local company called Wigetworks. And that became a joint venture with Singapore engineering prime ST Engineering. And what ST Engineering wants to do is to market a product that's on their own. So they have been doing MROs, aircraft maintenance, conversions for the longest time, but they want to have a product on their own.

 So their entry into the market is of course this wing-in-ground effect aircraft, AirFish. The one in display is the smaller AirFish. But they do have a couple of AirFish 8, which can fit, as the name implies, eight passengers. The idea is for it to operate in the littorals to replace ferries, which are much slower and to replace helicopters, which are so much more expensive.

I think the beauty of the AirFish is that it's not under any ICAO or even aviation certification jurisdiction. It's in fact under the IMO, International Maritime Organization, jurisdiction, and therefore making service into entry certification so much more easier as compared to a conventional aircraft.

Guy Norris:    

Yeah. And exactly as Chuanren suggests, it's actually a combination of an aircraft and a fish. Well, somewhere in between, at least a boat and an airplane. But it is fascinating to see this proliferation recently we've seen, not only here in Singapore but in other projects around the world, of this opportunity for wing-in-ground effect aircraft. So pelican-like performance with extraordinary efficiencies. I mean, the version that you were talking about has got a couple of General Motor V12s in it to push it along. So yeah, it's a whole different ballgame.

Christine Boynton   

Well, it's amazing. And I'm going to send folks to our app to see your video about the AirFish, to learn more and to see it for themselves. We are out of time. So that's a wrap for this week. Thanks everyone for jumping on this in the middle of a busy air show day.

There's so much we didn't touch on today. So if you're listening and you want to read more of our air show coverage, see some of those videos, including Guy with the AirFish, be sure to visit our website or download our airshow app, aviationweek.com. And for the app, that's aviationweek.com/app.

Thanks to our podcast editor, Guy Ferneyhough. Thanks for your time, listeners. Have a wonderful week and be sure to tune in next week for the next episode.