MRO Aftermarket To Be Heavily Impacted By COVID-19 In The Next Three Years

After shrinking precipitously, the MRO aftermarket demand post-pandemic totals to $878 billion over the next 10 years, growing at a 3.6% CAGR after factoring in fleet and utilization impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Down from nearly $943 billion forecasted pre-COVID, the pandemic impacts are felt heavily between 2021 and 2023. 

More than 190,000 major MRO service events (specifically engine and airframe ones) are expected over the 10-year forecast, causing the annual demand to increase from $71B in 2021 to $98B in 2030.

Engine demand totals $405 billion with the CFM56 family holding $100 billion alone.  Heavy airframe events triggered by aircraft returning to storage produce a 3-year sinewave demand cycle.  Component demand rises at 3.9% CAGR, producing $175 billion in demand.