A Boeing 737 on the final assembly line in Seattle.
Commercial aviation supply chain manufacturers are skeptical about OEMs’ plans to ramp up production rates and believe their own ability to respond to any production increase will generally require capital expenditure, according to consultants McKinsey.
Boeing has said that it wants to increase its production rates. However, FAA maintains stronger oversight of Boeing’s production processes, capping the OEM’s monthly rate for the 737 MAX to 38 while investigations continue into January’s Alaska Airlines incident, in which a door plug on a 737 MAX-9 blew out during flight.
Boeing says it is well on the way to resuming the 38-per-month rate by the end of this year. The manufacturer also plans to increase production of the 787 from five to 10 monthly but has warned recently that the ramp-up may be slower than anticipated.
Airbus, meanwhile, has recently delayed plans to increase A320-family production to 75 per month from 2026 to 2027.
McKinsey partner Henry Marcil said there was “general skepticism across the supply chain” that the OEMs will achieve the ramp-up rates that they are targeting.
“Four-fifths of suppliers say they are not ready to deal with it,” Marcil said. Insufficient supply chain capacity existed to meet those aspirations without companies injecting additional capital expenditure to boost their own production.
McKinsey partnered with Aviation Week to survey 175 leaders across more than 80 firms ranging from airframe and engine OEMs to suppliers, MROs and operators on key questions as to how they will respond to the challenges of meeting current demand while tooling up for future aircraft and technologies. The results were shared at a Farnborough briefing.
The supply chain also believes that next-generation single-aisle aircraft will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary in design, McKinsey said, with OEMs sticking with traditional designs rather than options such as blended wing-body or truss-braced wing.
Survey respondents told McKinsey they were uncertain as to what technological innovations would be required to support new designs.
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