Crossover jet market increasing, despite engine problems

What are the prospects for the crossover jet sector? Will airlines switch over to them, rather than using smaller variants of narrowbody jets? Bradley Dailey, director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, believes some will.

Earlier in the careers of the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families, there was considerable interest in the 737-700 and A319, Dailey noted, but “These are shrinks of an optimum [sized] aircraft, so those aircraft didn’t have great unit economics.

“What crossover aircraft have been able to do is size themselves closer to those with better unit costs.

“We’ve seen a broader trend to up-gauging. [and] I think we’re seeing that in the regional market as well, with the Embraer 190/195 going from 115 to 130 seats. Swiss, for example, are replacing their A319s with A220s.”

Additionally, some airlines are using their crossover jets as complementary to narrowbodies, notably Singaporean LCC Scoot with Embraer 195s.

Polish flag-carrier LOT has also brought in Embraers to operate sectors on which the company’s 737 MAXs would be uneconomical, he added. “I think it’s prudent for airlines to think about the gauge of aircraft they really need, notwithstanding some technical and operational problems they’ve been seeing.”

Dailey noted the ongoing problems with new-generation engines, notably the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) and expressed some surprise at recent sales to companies in the Middle East and Africa, given recent data that indicated the engines are performing worse in hot climates.

There was always the possibility, however, the airlines concerned had structured their contracts with the manufacturers to give them access to spare engines if problems arose with powerplants on the wing.

As for passenger acceptance of smaller aircraft on routes that would previously have employed narrowbodies, Dailey said much depended on marketing. “In some markets, there’s less emphasis on the product you’re flying. I was on an A220 with five-abreast seats and it was quite nice. It doesn’t feel like you’re on a Canadair Regional Jet or an Embraer E1-type aircraft.”

If airlines with crossover jets can fit them with standard-size overhead bins, the smaller fuselage should not be much of an issue with passengers, he said.