Aviation Week Forecasts 11,836 Business Aviation Deliveries Over 10 Years

A just-released forecast from Aviation Week Network Intelligence & Data Services projects business jet deliveries of 9,047 business jets and 2,789 turboprops valued at $299 billion in retail dollars over the next 10 years from 2024–2033.

Deliveries of jets and turboprops are expected to total more than 1,000 aircraft in 2024, growing to 1,200 deliveries a year from 2026 to 2031. Business jet deliveries are projected to reach more than 800 in 2024, “with a rapid climb-out and then leveling off over the remaining portion of the forecast,” says Brian Kough, Aviation Week Network senior director of intelligence and custom solutions.

The forecast projects a “bubble” of deliveries in the near-term, reflecting the surge in new orders to manufacturers post-pandemic along with new business jets coming onto the market in the next two or three years, such as the Gulfstream G400, G800, Falcon 10X, Citation Ascend and others, says Daniel Williams, Aviation Week senior manager of fleet, flight and forecast data. “So, you’re going to see that little bubble or that surge, and then the market will calm down a little bit.” 

For turboprops, the forecast projects growth in single-engine turboprops with 2,292 of the nearly 2,800 turboprops to be delivered in the next decade to be single-engine turboprops.

“The single-engine turboprop market is a bright star because of advancements and green credentials that come with these,” Williams says. They are “highly reliable,” and with only one engine, they come with a lower cost.

Business jets are projected to account for 76% of all business aviation deliveries during the period, with turboprops accounting for 24%. Light business jets are expected to account for the largest market segment with 30% of all deliveries, followed by large jets at 26% and medium jets at 20%, while business jet airliners are expected to account for 0.4%.

North America is expected to account for 67% of the market over the 10-year period with 7,963 aircraft deliveries, followed by Western Europe at 15%, or 1,813 aircraft, Latin America at 7% with 873 deliveries and Asia Pacific at 4% with 433 aircraft delivered. 

The forecast projects 6,300 aircraft will be retired over the 10-year period, with older Citations, Learjets and King Air 90s leading the way. Retirements are expected to peak in 2031 with 731 retirees. 
The in-service fleet of business aircraft is projected to grow 14% over the decade to 39,719 aircraft with an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4%, a slowdown from the 2.4% average fleet growth from 2017–2023. The business jet fleet is expected to grow at 1.7% CAGR, compared to 1% for turboprops. 

Unlike the commercial aviation industry, business aviation did not suffer the same drastic drop in the active fleet during the pandemic, Kough says. 

“We feel the delivery market will stabilize on the high side of recent “normal” activity seen over the previous decade at ~900 jets and ~230 turboprops per year on average,” Kough says. “Last year’s signs of unsustainable exuberance in the new and used markets appear on track to stabilize with sales transactions taking on what we would call more normal activity and transaction precautions.” 

By model, the Cirrus Vision Jet and Embraer’s Phenom 300 are expected to see the highest number of business jet deliveries during the forecast period, while the Pilatus PC-12 turboprop is expected to have the highest deliveries in the turboprop segment. By manufacturer, Textron Aviation is projected to deliver the most aircraft over the decade, with 2,893 aircraft, or 25% of deliveries.

Demand for maintenance, overhaul and repair services, meanwhile, are expected to total $138 billion over the next 10 years, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%. Aircraft modifications are expected to account for 31% of MRO demand, followed by engine services at 28%, components with 25% and airframes at 16%.