A CFM56-7B engine.
With aircraft manufacturers still struggling to fulfill delivery commitments and few signs of recovery for the supply chain, 2024 was another year in which airlines were forced to lean on older aircraft and engines to meet their capacity requirements.
Older engines operating for longer has provided a big boost for MRO providers as airlines book extra shop visits. For an illustration of how big this boost is, consider Aviation Week Network’s 2022 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, which projected annual MRO demand for the CFM International CFM56 rising to a peak of $13.5 billion in 2025 from $10.3 billion in 2022, and then falling to about $9.7 billion by 2031. The latest data, in contrast, forecasts annual demand to remain at a plateau of above $16 billion from 2025-31.
It is a similar story with the International Aero Engines V2500, for which annual MRO demand will hover at around $5.5 billion for the next five years, whereas in 2022 Aviation Week Network predicted maintenance demand rising to a high of $5 billion in 2025 and then declining to $3.2 billion in 2031.
In both cases, exact comparisons between new and old dollar figures are misleading due to inflation and higher parts prices, but the general trend lines do show a sharp demarcation.
Of course, surging values and lease rates for mid-life equipment inevitably have raised questions about when the tide will turn, and airlines and lessors start receiving new aircraft in the numbers they want.
For narrowbody engines, Aviation Week Network’s Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast 2025 predicts an inflection point around 2028, when CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan powerplants begin to outnumber the CFM56s and V2500s they were built to replace. For widebody engines, the data indicates this transition will occur about a year later.
Retirements will also peak around this point, with about 2,500 engines exiting the fleet around 2029. In 2025, meanwhile, Aviation Week Network forecasts the retirement of about 1,000 narrowbody engines, 350 widebody engines and 500 regional aircraft engines.
For a detailed analysis at Aviation Week Network’s latest engine fleet and MRO data, see the forthcoming Engine Yearbook 2025.
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