Airbus expects the market for aircraft dismantling and recycling to grow significantly over the next 20 years.
The OEM hopes all the used serviceable material generated will alleviate the supply chain pain the industry is currently experiencing due to parts shortages, high parts prices and aircraft delivery delays.
During a media briefing Sept. 18 in which Airbus shared its 2024-43 Global Services Forecast, the OEM predicted that the dismantling and recycling market will see a 7.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the 20-year period as nearly 19,000 older-generation aircraft are replaced, generating around $52 billion in used serviceable material (USM). Airbus noted that there are more than 100 global dismantling and recycling service centers this year—including its recently opened Airbus Lifecycle Services Center (ALSC) joint venture with Tarmac Aerosave in Chengdu, China—and it expects this number to triple by 2043. The OEM predicts global demand for around 500 aircraft teardowns annually over the next 20 years.
Several times during the presentation, Airbus noted supply chain issues as a major challenge it seeks to mitigate through its services business. According to Sonia Dumas, the OEM’s head of services marketing, airlines have increasingly begun relying on Airbus to manage their spares in efforts to derisk operations. She said Airbus’ power-by-the-hour Flight Hour Services contract offering has doubled its customer base since the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that customers benefit from the pool effect.
When asked about whether Airbus was looking into parts manufacturing approval (PMA) part strategies, Dumas said the OEM does not currently have plans to implement PMA parts into its spares inventory. Rather, Airbus is focusing on USM, particularly through the ALSC in Chengdu.
According to Amaya Rodriguez Gonzalez, VP of aftermarket strategy at Airbus, the ALSC has already generated useful learnings on recycling composites and reinforced plastics. Gonzalez noted that around 92% of aircraft weight can currently be recycled, and around 30% of that weight can be converted to USM, “So there are a lot of opportunities in that market.”
China will also become Airbus’ largest services market by 2043. The OEM expects the country to generate $61 billion in services demand by 2043, up from $23.5 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, the fastest-growing demand is expected in South Asia, which will increase to $18 billion from $4.5 billion during this period. This is followed by the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and South Asia), which will increase to $50 billion from $24 billion, and the Middle East, which will increase to $32 billion from $14 billion.
Worldwide, Airbus expects services demand to grow at a 3.5% CAGR, reaching $290 billion by 2043 from $150 billion in 2024.
Gonzalez says this will be driven by 3.8% annual growth in passenger traffic and changes in fleet composition. The OEM expects more than 48,000 aircraft to be in service by 2043, 95% of which will be new-generation aircraft.
Airbus highlighted potential services opportunities on the digital side related to aircraft connectivity modifications, software upgrades aimed at reducing emissions, digitalizing inventory management and utilizing technologies for training mechanics, pilots and cabin crew. The OEM said it is working to integrate more artificial intelligence into its Skywise data platform, and Dumas said one European airline customer was able to avoid 44 aircraft cancellations in July thanks to its use of predictive maintenance.
However, workforce pipeline will continue to be a challenge. By 2043, Airbus expects the industry to need 690,000 new technicians, 620,000 new pilots and 950,000 new cabin crew. Boeing forecasted similar numbers earlier in 2024 in its 2024-43 Pilot and Technician Outlook, noting demand over this period for 716,000 new maintenance technicians, 674,000 new pilots and 980,000 new cabin crew.
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