The upcoming United Arab Emirates fighter buy will probably be the largest export fighter purchase until the end of the decade. This perennially delayed decision, now scheduled for early 1998, isn't particularly large. Covering only about 80 medium fighters, it's dwarfed by Taiwan's 1992 150-unit F-16 and 60-unit Mirage 2000 buy. But the decision will be made against a volatile backdrop. It will help determine how close the U.S. fighter primes are to achieving their goal of vanquishing their European competitors in the world fighter market.

With well over 2,000 jet transports on backlog and more than 700 scheduled for delivery in 1998, all the signs indicate we are approaching the high point of the jet transport ``boom'' cycle. Yet the market is displaying some very unusual characteristics for an upturn.

The trainer market is a winner-take-all game. Whether high-end combat jet trainer or low-end turboprop, victory is concentrated among a small number of players. The British Aerospace Hawk (built and marketed by Boeing as the T-45), Pilatus PC-9 (built and marketed by Raytheon as the Mk.2 or T-6A Texan 2) and Embraer 312 Tucano are success stories. Most other trainers are either expensive national projects, like Kawasaki's T-4, or failures, like FMA's IA.63 Pampa.