With well over 2,000 jet transports on backlog and more than 700 scheduled for delivery in 1998, all the signs indicate we are approaching the high point of the jet transport ``boom'' cycle. Yet the market is displaying some very unusual characteristics for an upturn.

The trainer market is a winner-take-all game. Whether high-end combat jet trainer or low-end turboprop, victory is concentrated among a small number of players. The British Aerospace Hawk (built and marketed by Boeing as the T-45), Pilatus PC-9 (built and marketed by Raytheon as the Mk.2 or T-6A Texan 2) and Embraer 312 Tucano are success stories. Most other trainers are either expensive national projects, like Kawasaki's T-4, or failures, like FMA's IA.63 Pampa.

With the end of the Cold War, many military forces will lose their raison d'etre unless they bolster their airlift capabilities. The demise of the traditional Soviet threat, and the lack of any other predictable threat outside of the Middle East, rules out prepositioning forces. Future threats are likely to be more random, arising in relatively inaccessible places.