PARIS–Embraer sees world demand for 11,000 new commercial airliners in the 150-seat or smaller range over the next 20 years, with 55% replacing earlier-generation aircraft and 45% being acquired for growth.
Of that total, 8,790 will be jets, split almost equally among replacement aircraft and those handling growth (52% and 48%, respectively), while 2,210 will be turboprops.
Regional jets will increasingly complement narrowbodies in airline fleets, Embraer said in its latest market forecast, released at the Paris Air Show June 20.
World passenger traffic is forecast to expand at 3.2% CAGR per annum, significantly down from pre-pandemic predictions, because of a combination of the pandemic, expected deceleration of the global economy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The current air transport model is increasingly being affected by the trend toward the global economy fragmenting into two competing economic blocs, headed by China and the US, the Brazilian OEM says. As a result, trade may increasingly be driven by geopolitical, not economic, interests.
This means that efficient connectivity will be more than a competitive economic advantage; it will become an asset, believes Embraer.
By geographic region, Embraer says China and Asia-Pacific will see increasing synergies between turboprops, regional jets and narrowbodies because these will enable the markets to address inefficiencies and find pockets of growth, including point-to-point routes that serve smaller cities and hub cities.
In Europe and the CIS, Embraer believes the drive for sustainability will raise ticket prices and make existing narrowbodies too large for some routes, leading to a new focus on smaller aircraft. However, that does not address the move by some European governments to ban short routes where there are rail or other ground travel options.
In North America, Embraer’s forecast says the pilot shortage is skewing fleet development, but numbers should improve in the coming years. This will mean a new balance in airline fleets between large regional jets and small narrowbodies that will allow gradual upgauging. US pilot union scope clauses mean that aircraft in the 65-75 seat category will be more important than ever, with the supply of new capacity coming in the shape of small narrowbodies, Embraer believes.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, new regional hubs will drive more demand, with connectivity required for new and underserved markets, Embraer says. These will require new fleet profiles.
In the Middle East, airlines are starting to look inward for new growth and Embraer believes that more than 60% of routes would be better served by aircraft in the less than 150-seat category.
In Africa, more airlines will look to crossover aircraft that can most efficiently serve thinner routes, allowing them to increase frequencies, load factors and yields more effectively than with larger narrowbodies.
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