Scheduled airline capacity growth in June 2011 appears to be decelerating slightly compared with earlier months of the year, recording a year-on-year increase of five per cent based on the latest scheduled data from OAG. According to the OAG Facts June 2011: Executive Summary, this increase is in line with overall capacity trends since the beginning of 2011. The number of flights also increased by three per cent, marginally below the average monthly increase of four per cent for the year so far, according to the report.
The results reflect a combination of strong economic performance and related air transport activity in a number of markets such as Brazil and Vietnam, and at the same time a number of ad-hoc market “shocks” caused by the Japanese tsunami and geo-political instability in markets such as Libya and Bahrain.
A Regional Breakdown
Looking at the main regional markets the only region to not record growth was the to/from Central & South America market. Frequencies are down two per cent year-on-year for June although available seat capacity grew marginally by one per cent. The reduction in frequencies to/from the region is close to the trend for the year to date for the region, which shows a three per cent reduction. However, seat capacity within the Central and South America region grew by eight per cent.
The Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions again vied for the position of fastest growing air transport markets. Middle East recorded an eight per cent increase in flight frequency and a ten per cent increase in seat capacity to and from the region, whilst the Asia-Pacific region kicked in with a ten per cent increase in flight frequencies and a nine per cent increase in seat capacity.
When OAG Aviation looks at the world from the perspective of “trading blocs”, intra Asia-Pacific frequencies exceeded those within Europe once again to place the region firmly in second position behind the North America region. Intra-European and intra-North American frequencies remained almost static with each recording frequency growth of 1%, reflecting the slow rate of economic recovery in these markets.
Seat capacity within Africa has continued its strong performance throughout 2011 with a nine per cent increase in flights in June, supported by new low-cost capacity in South Africa. Intercontinental flights to and from Africa stagnated in June 2011 (more information on the statistics from this region will appear in one of The HUB Daily updates which will be produced next week alongside the Routes Africa 2011 forum in Bamako, Mali). In terms of total volume growth, the intra Asia/Pacific region remains the clear leader with an increase of almost 6.7 million seats in June 2011 against 2010.
The Low-Cost Model
Worldwide low -cost scheduled capacity again increased year-on-year, with a nine per cent increase in both frequency and capacity reflecting the consistent load factor performance that this business model tends to produce. On a global basis more than one flight in every five is now operated by a low-cost carrier, according to the OAG data, with Europe showing the highest regional penetration with 28.2 per cent of flights operated by these budget airlines. There is now also significant low-cost presence in emerging markets such as South America where 22.7 per cent of flights in June were performed by a budget carrier, and in Africa where June saw a huge 42 per cent increase.
Hub Airport Traffic
Looking at the main hub airports by scheduled capacity, Atlanta remains the world’s busiest airport with a projected 9.6 million seats available for passengers in June 2011. A noticeable feature for June is actually a small reduction in the number of frequencies (down by 2 per cent) accompanied by a 4 per cent increase in overall seat capacity. This is undoubtedly a reflection of the growing move by network carriers such as Delta Air Lines to move away from smaller capacity jets to larger aircraft – particularly as increased fuel prices begin to bite, according to OAG.
Beijing Capital International Airport heads off London Heathrow for second place with 8.1 million available seats compared to 7.9 million, whilst Chicago O’Hare picks up fourth place in the global league table with 7.4 million available seats. In terms of traffic volatility, the most notable aspect of the June statistics for hub airports is seen in Tokyo Narita, where a combination of short-term capacity withdrawals due to suppressed passenger demand created by the recent Tsunami and the opening of new capacity at neighbouring Tokyo Haneda Airport. A massive 475,000 year-on-year reduction in seats is projected for Narita in June 2011.
In terms of absolute volume, Delhi Airport once again had the largest year on year growth in June with a remarkable increase of over 893,000 seats reflecting the successful opening of the new Delhi Airport and the hub facilities it now offers Air India, Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines. Moscow Domodedevo’s success in attracting carriers to operate 22 new routes from the airport in summer 2011 is also illustrated by a huge 672,000 increase in June seat capacity.
From a US perspective, Delta’s strategy on concentrating on its primary hub airports rather than secondary hubs reflects in a 15 per cent reduction in Memphis seat capacity. The key Asia Pacific hubs in Singapore, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok all enjoyed healthy double digit capacity and frequency growth, driven by a combination of strong flag carrier performance and further expansion by low-cost entities.
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