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Artist's concept of asteroid 2024 YR4.
The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Planetary Defense Office is “closely monitoring” a newly discovered asteroid over concern it could impact Earth.
ESA says that as of Jan. 29 “the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%.” But the agency stressed it had “a very small chance of impacting Earth.”
The asteroid is 40-100 m (31-328 ft.) wide. It was discovered on Dec. 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. “An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” ESA says.
Should the asteroid remain on a collision path, it would likely have a velocity of 17.34 km/sec. (10.7 mph/sec.) when first encountering Earth’s atmosphere.
The asteroid is now on top of the ESA’s risk list of near-Earth objects, supplanting the 11-24-m-wide 2023VD3 that is due be in Earth’s immediate vicinity in November 2034.
ESA says 2024 YR4 now has a Level 3 rating on its impact hazard scale, meaning it “warrants attention.”
The agency noted that asteroid impact probabilities often rise in the early days of discovery before fading away.
The asteroid will fade out of view from Earth in the coming months, ESA said, and not become observable again until 2028. The agency aims to try to gather as much data as possible while it remains in view, including through the use of the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile.
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