Podcast: Defense Highlights At Dubai Airshow

Impressive fly-by-wire F-15 flying, unique displays from around the world and the absence of Israel are all discussed by Aviation Week defense editors at Dubai Airshow. 

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Rush Transcript

Guy Norris:

Welcome to Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast from the Dubai Air Show. I'm Guy Norris, Senior Editor, and with me to talk about what we've seen and heard so far here is Tony Osborne, our London Bureau Chief and European Defense Editor, and our prestigious US-based Defense Editor, Steve Trimble.

I wanted to start with you, Tony, because we all know the Dubai Air Show is unique from many perspectives, not least of which is the fact that it's like the crossroads of the world here. We get Russian, Chinese, other air forces all strutting their stuff across these ever blue skies out here, but the one thing that's really truly stolen the show, at least for you so far, has been the F-15. I mean, how come an aircraft that first flew in, what, 51 years ago is the star of the show? Would you like to tell our listeners what you're thinking about there?

Tony Osborne:

So, my experience of the F-15 in its renaissance, if you like, F-15QA version was on Sunday, where we saw it rehearsing for the first time. So, Boeing has brought the jet literally just over the water from Qatar where, obviously, that country has bought 36 of the aircraft. And basically, they've stripped it off, they've taken all the fast tanks off, they've taken all the pylons off, and they've turned it into essentially a hot rod that is basically burning up the skies, and performing one of the most impressive displays from a non-prospecting fighter, I think, we've seen for some time. I mean, Steve has just interviewed the pilot. But I mean, it literally is one of the best displays. This year's Dubai has seven different combat aircraft in the skies this year.

Guy Norris:

What are they, by the way? What are the types?

Tony Osborne:

Some of the other types we've got is the Sino-Pakistani, JF-17. We've got the Chengdu J-10, which is part of the August the 1st display team. Got the UAE Air Force F-16 Block 60, a Mirage 2000, the Dassault Rafale, which of course will join the UAE Air Force in the coming years. And there's also the Chinese L-15, and also the Russian Knights with the Sukhoi Su-35s, and Sukhoi Su-30s, and I may even be missing one of those.

Steve Trimble:

Tejas.

Tony Osborne:

Oh, and Tejas, the Indian, and the Hindustan Aviation Limited Tejas. There's a phenomenal number of fighter aircraft basically vying for attention.

Guy Norris:

Wow. And that doesn't include even the F-35.

Tony Osborne:

Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I can't remember. Oh, and a B-1 Bomber today as well, of course.

Guy Norris:

So it's been, as you say, quite a bewildering variety. But we must, just before we talk to Steve, because he, as Tony mentioned, did talk to the test pilot involved in the display, we must remind our listeners that the F-15 received a pretty staggering upgrade as part of the F-15 SA program, which was-

Tony Osborne:

Really, it's local, of course, in a sense.

Guy Norris:

Yeah. Which was the beginning of this renaissance for the aircraft, and predominantly, because it was equipped with a fly-by-wire flight control system. So anyway, Steve, over to you.

Steve Trimble:

Yeah, yeah. It is frustrating too, because I'm the one person in the room that hasn't seen the F-15 actually do the display, because it started late today. Then I had to go in to do an interview about something else. But yeah, I got a chance to interview the test pilot, Mongoose Dutter, I think was his name. His call sign was Mongoose, of course. Yeah. I mean, he really put the airplane through its paces to show what you can do with an F-15 with a flight control system that is digitally, and artificially limited to let you get as much performance as possible out of that jet without causing any real safety issues, as long as you don't do anything too crazy. I mean, everything stayed within the box, a very, very tight box above the runway. There was no zipping up and down the runway, or zipping out of the airspace, and coming back in.

Tony Osborne:

Just like every other American display, like the F-16, and 15.

Steve Trimble:

Yeah, yeah. Well, to regain energy, and come back, and set up and do something else. No, he stayed in this very tight box doing low-speed maneuvers, trying to show the combat relevance in low-speed situations of what that jet can do now with that flyby wire. And I mean, the kinds of things he was talking to me about was, how in testing, they just can't make the jet now go out of control. They've loaded up the wing, just one wing, but not the other.

Tony Osborne:

Asymmetric load.

Steve Trimble:

An asymmetric load, and then applied opposite rudder, and crossed the controls all at the same time, and they still can't make the jet depart from controlled flight. So, there's a lot more they can do with that jet now, and so you could see it do, it did kind of a... As he told me, I never saw it, but it was supposed to do kind of a headstand, and then a J turn, a kind of a J turn, which is normally associated with super maneuverable thrust vectoring fighters like F-22, or Su-35, C-57, but F 15 doesn't have thrust vectoring. But by tricking the control surfaces, using that fly-by-wire logic, and the pilot just applying as much yaw as he can, in this case, you can get the effect of a J turn without that thrust vectoring assistance to do it.

Guy Norris:

Right. And I think that's the thing that Tony got so excited about, when he came rushing into the newsroom, well, breathlessly having said he'd never seen anything quite like it, including the F-22. But anyway, that's another story.

Tony Osborne:

But it's fair to say, I mean, it is a new aircraft. This is the first time that we've seen the fly-by-wire F-15 really put through its paces since the aircraft really went into service initially with Saudi Arabia, since then with Qatar. But it's fair to say this was a very choreographed display. It was designed clearly for Dubai, whereas all the other finer jet displays have been developed for other air shows. So, the French Rafale, for example, is a routine that's been practiced, same with the F-35 and so on. But nevertheless, no holds bound, it was worth seeing it.

Steve Trimble:

Well, just one thing before we move on from this. Just with all these displays, where we're seeing Chinese fighters here, we're seeing Russian fighters here, European fighters, American fighters, all competing for influence in this region. The airshow is an act, but there's a geopolitical message underneath it. That's why, they all came here, and it's amazing to actually see, this is probably the one place in the world where you could see all of them together in one place doing as much as they can do to show off, essentially, in this country, with some very deep-pocketed countries looking at fighter purchases, and weapon systems. And it's not just about the fighters, it's about all the different weapon systems that are being sold in this area. That's what we were looking at at this show.

Guy Norris:

Right, absolutely. And it is a good point. This aircraft, just to remind or to tell our listeners was, as mentioned, clean, there was nothing on it. I mean, it was stripped bare, but it was able to do these, I mean, a tail slide, for example.

Tony Osborne:

But every jet that appears in the air show is virtually completely clean, which is fair to say, so it's all things being equal.

Guy Norris:

An excellent point. It always occurs to me that coming here to the show to Dubai is a bit like the aerospace equivalent of the Star Wars bar. You could just get somebody from every quadrant of the galaxy, and it just feels a bit like that. Nowhere else could you get that feel of-

Steve Trimble:

But who shot first?

Guy Norris:

Yeah.

Tony Osborne:

I always wonder what it's like for the delegations of these smaller, slightly less rich countries coming here, and they see these fabulous fighters in the sky, but actually their budgets are limited to perhaps a few cheap drones, and a few sort of liaison, and utility aircraft.

Guy Norris:

Yeah. Well, and you did mention-

Tony Osborne:

Thanks for hearing.

Guy Norris:

Well, you did mention the others. So who'd like to talk about, you said you've the Russian Knights here, and of course, the J-10s of China's August 1st, and we should just tell our listeners that they're all staying at this hotel with us.

Steve Trimble:

They've literally walked to the August 1st demonstration team, walked into the lobby after we got into the hotel from the show tonight. Yeah.

Guy Norris:

Yeah. An extremely eclectic selection here. Now, away from the, I wouldn't say frivolity, but the entertainment, and the sheer amazement of these displays is the fact that in the background, everybody's aware, underneath it all that, nearby relatively geographically, is this conflict going on in Israel, and Gaza, which, of course, is a very somber undertone in a way to the show. But what's been the feeling that you've got going round the show? Have you detected this as an undercurrent or?

Tony Osborne:

Definitely, defense is being talked about in hushed tones, I think, it's definitely fair to say. The number of briefings I think is down. I think discussion of what is going on in the world, those very local events will change the subject very quickly. The Israeli companies that should have been present here, the likes of the Israel Aerospace Industries. Raphael, their stands are, I think, Steve probably put it correct, completely barren in terms of their presence. There's no one present. All their equipment is stored away.

Steve Trimble:

Yeah, there's no exhibits.

Tony Osborne:

No exhibits.

Steve Trimble:

Bare walls.

Tony Osborne:

And these are big stands. These companies were planning a big presence.

Steve Trimble:

Yeah. Well, and there's just a silence, right? I mean, no one will talk about it in interviews, or media round tables, or press conferences. We've attended the Defense International Air Chiefs Conference. Every time you ask at one of these venues, you either get silence, no comment, or an answer that doesn't address that at all, and just sort of broadens it out to the entire region, broadens the answer to apply to the broader region. I mean, there's just an awkwardness. You get the feeling that, diplomatically, there would be some issues if different representatives from different countries said anything that might embarrass, or frustrate the government here in the UAE, which prefers to not address this so directly and so, specifically, during this event, especially this event. Because meanwhile, I mean, there is tensions.

I mean, this thing could still flare up beyond where we've seen the violence so far in Gaza, and Israel, and everybody's trying to keep that as stable as possible, and nobody wants a provocation for understandable reasons. All that is going on is around the show, and in the subtext of everything that we see.

Guy Norris:

Yeah. And of course, it just adds in an extra layer to what was already going to be a tense environment here with the Ukraine, the continuing war in the Ukraine, and at least two other conflicts.

Tony Osborne:

Especially, with the Russians here present, actually. They're here at the show, not just presenting their wares, ground-based air defense systems, helicopters. The Kamov Ka-52 is here, the aircraft that is one of the most shot down platforms in that conflict, and yet they're marketing it here at the show.

Steve Trimble:

And there are longstanding ties between the UAE, and Russian defense industries. UAE collaborated with Russia to develop the Pantsir air defense system, for example. And two years ago, we saw the Checkmate make its international debut as a mock-up here at Dubai.

Guy Norris:

I remember the scent myself.

Steve Trimble:

Because they also introduced, or gave away a perfume, a Checkmate branded perfume at the Russian pavilion, which was bizarre. But we still have it at home.

Tony Osborne:

Very fragrant.

Guy Norris:

Yes. And of course, talking of the UAE, again, it's been this extraordinary display of the UAE drone phenomenon. I mean, just could somebody explain what that means? Do we really know why there's so much interest in drones, and why there seems to be literally people falling over themselves to sell more of them here?

Tony Osborne:

That's the one thing we're still struggling with is the reasons why, why do Middle East countries love drones so much? I mean, so certainly some of the lessons we've come out, or some of the things we've heard today, so Turkish drones have obviously taken the world by storm in recent years. 30 nations have ordered the Bayraktar TB2, turns out the UAE, United Arab Emirates might be one of the biggest operators of that platform. They've apparently ordered 60 of them along with 60 of the follow-on platform, the Akinci. Okay? But then it turns out that they may have also ordered 100 of their domestically produced drone from EDGE. And don't forget, they're also trying to buy the MQ-9 drone from the United States as well. We're talking about phenomenal fleets of drones that even Western nations are going to be wondering what to do with all this equipment. It does beg a question why, hopefully we can find out exactly what their reasons is. But they do want sizeable fleets, neighboring Saudi Arabia, the same.

Steve Trimble:

Well, sizable and diverse.

Tony Osborne:

Yes.

Steve Trimble:

Amazingly diverse. But the UAE typically likes to buy at least two of anything like F-16s, and Mirage 2000s, for example, and UAE has... The history of that has been bizarre, especially with the USA, all right? Because if you go back 15 years, the UAE made it very clear that they wanted to buy the MQ-9 drone, which of course, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems were more than happy to sell them. But the US government policy at the time was, any armed drone like that was forbidden, because of the Missile Technology Control Regime which defined that as a category as basically equivalent to a cruise missile. And so, it can not be exported to the UAE or beyond NATO countries, plus a few other little countries that we're allied with, but not the UAE.

So, that was the status quo for a long time. Due to UAE's pressure, we eventually sold them RQ-1XP Predator Drones, the Predator A, which is the... Well, it's like a 1200-pound drone versus a 12,000 pound MQ-9 Reaper. I mean, it's 10 x the size of what they really wanted. In the meantime, they also went out, and bought Chinese Wing Loong 2s, which are in the same category as the MQ-9. And apparently, more recently, they went out and bought some Turkish Akincii drones, sorry, that are in that same weight category. And meanwhile, US policy has evolved very slowly, and very fitfully. The US unilaterally redefined how they interpreted the MTCR to exclude the MQ-9 from that ban list to non-NATO members or non-NATO countries, and so that happened a few years ago. And then shortly after that, the US government approved the sale of up to 18 MQ-9 SeaGuardians, maritime patrol configuration of the Reaper, to the UAE.

But then that deal never got consummated. And it looked like it got mixed up in this larger deal that UAE also wanted up to 50 F-35As that had been approved by the Trump administration. But then we found out, oh, the US government accused the UAE of setting up, or at least allowing the Chinese to start building a military base near Abu Dhabi. And then they bought L-15 advanced jet trainers, which just got confirmed officially here at the show to replace the Al Fursan demonstration team for airshow purposes, not for military training, and that messed things up for a while. Now, looks like there's some progress now for the MQ-9 deal. I don't think they're close to signing a deal this week, or even the next, well, months anyway. But what they did do was make a... What happened was the US government changed a policy that allowed General Atomics to address one of the UAE's biggest concerns about getting access to the MQ-9, and I think Tony could probably elaborate on it.

Tony Osborne:

Yeah. So the UAE's EDGE group has basically been partnered up with General Atomics to fit several of their UAE developed munitions onto the MQ-9B, assuming that a deal actually goes through. And it is very much hinging, I think, on that progress, getting those clearances through, but the idea is to... And that will be the first time that a non-NATO munition has been put on a US-developed RPAS, because the UK weapons are on the SkyGuardian that has been exported to the UK. But of course, those are NATO weapons, NATO-compatible weapons.

Guy Norris:

Right. And of course, we did see the General Atomics leadership winding their way through the booths, and stands, didn't we?

Steve Trimble:

Well, in fact, I talked to David Alexander, the CEO of that, and he said that EDGE Munition integration approval for the MQ-9 was a breakthrough for getting that deal through, eventually. But he said that deal is contingent, getting those munitions integrated. That doesn't start until the MQ-9 deal is signed with the UAE, because those are for the UAE armed forces. And after that, maybe other countries that get the MQ-9 might also want to buy those EDGE munitions, which is like Al Tariq glide bomb.

Tony Osborne:

They haven't even talked about a glide bomb, and a precision-guided bomb. But yeah, they haven't named them specifically.

Guy Norris:

Well, I think looking through the list that we prepared in the taxi on the way here, stuck in traffic, I think we pretty well covered it. I know we could talk a lot longer, but I'm afraid that's a wrap for this edition of Check 6 from Dubai. Thanks to our listeners, you guys out there, and special thanks to our podcast editor who's actually here with us in our hotel room, Guy Ferneyhough. To our listeners, if you want to read more of the coverage from Steve, or Tony, you can download our air show app.

Steve Trimble:

Or Guy.

Tony Osborne:

Or Guy.

Guy Norris:

Or me. So anyway, to see all of these stories from here, in almost real-time, you can go there. Thanks for your time, listeners, and have a wonderful week.