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MRO providers will keep pulling double duty in 2025, managing normal demand and acute needs created by delivery delays.
A cursory Wall Street-esque glance at aftermarket growth projections for 2025 could lead to some inaccurate conclusions.
Yes, commercial maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) growth rates will slow dramatically compared with the last few years. However, demand is not going anywhere but up—and at a better clip than historical averages.
The reason for the coming year-over-year growth dip is simple: Skyrocketing post-downturn growth rates following a near-complete cessation of all but mandatory work were unsustainable. Operators are catching up on deferred work and keeping pace with strong demand.
- Ongoing fleet needs, new aircraft troubles fuel MRO
- New strategies aim to boost efficiency
Then there is the gap-filling that older aircraft continue to provide as airframers and engine OEMs struggle to meet delivery and performance targets. Those struggles are expected to continue in 2025.
As discussed in the pages ahead, all this adds up to another strong year of commercial MRO demand in 2025—something on the order of 14-15% is a good bet.
But achieving that will not be easy. Adding shop floor capacity and skilled labor is necessary, but expansion alone will not meet projected demand. Even if it could, companies are better off examining a combination of efficiency gains and expansion to meet anticipated upticks.
Among the aftermarket watch items Aviation Week is flagging for the coming year: increased interest in module swaps to speed up engine turnaround times. FTAI Aviation is among the emerging module-swap players focused on the most popular narrowbody engines, but it is hardly alone.
FTAI’s strategy goes beyond finding ways around slow-moving engine shop induction pipelines. Its acquisition of CFM International CFM56 maintenance center Lockheed Martin Commercial Engine Solutions brought on more capacity for its growing module overhaul business and, critically, skilled labor. A major CFM56 aftermarket player, FTAI was a customer of the Montreal-based facility, which has capacity for about 300 shop visits per year. Now it has a chunk of new, controllable capacity and the workforce talent to leverage it.
While material shortages often take the blame for lagging deliveries and turn times, many see the root cause as a lack of people, not parts. “[The] industry lost too much knowledge in 2020, and as workforces have returned to appropriate levels to support the higher rates, the efficiency has been lacking,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a research note. “We also believe there remains substantial pressure at the Tier 3 and Tier 4 level of the supply chain.”
Adding more workers will help—but only as the new hires gain experience. “We believe the fundamental issue is a labor productivity and efficiency issue that will only take time to remedy itself,” RBC wrote. “In our view, it is not a question of additional aid or support, but a more consistent cadence.”
Such challenges mean alternative parts suppliers will continue to find opportunities. Parts manufacturer approval (PMA) hesitancy is on the “out” list. The reality is it has been for a few years, yet some still claim there are holdouts among top airlines and regulators. There are not.
But there will be some novel PMA activity. Thanks to efforts by a few innovative providers, notably Chromalloy, 2025 figures will see a fair share of critical engine PMA parts sold.
Will lessors finally begin to back off and open the door to complex PMA engine parts? It may depend on how quickly they want their engines back on wing.
Sourcing strategies bear watching beyond the engine space. Global supply chain challenges and greater emphasis on sustainability are changing how MRO providers set up their networks. One result will be more repair capabilities closer to home—and in some cases, completely insourced.
MRO executives face their fair share of challenges in the year ahead. But they also have myriad opportunities. Aviation Week has highlighted five people who are likely to spearhead big, positive developments in 2025. Given the deep pool of talent in the global MRO ranks, they will not be alone.
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