MRO Demand Forecast To Top $282 Billion In 2025

Maintenance demand is expected to be higher across aviation segments in 2025—with the commercial and military segments growing faster than civil helicopters and business aviation MRO.

Military maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) expenditures should be the largest in 2025—$135.3 billion, compared with $126.3 billion for commercial aircraft. But commercial aircraft MRO should log a higher growth rate in 2025 than in 2024—14% year over year, compared with military MRO’s 6% increase, according to the Aviation Week Network’s 2025 Fleet & MRO Forecasts. Engine MRO dominates commercial aviation spending (49%) while field maintenance drives military MRO (39%).

• Military and commercial MRO to garner the highest bills
• Business aircraft retirements expected to increase; civil helicopter fleet growth plateaus

Breaking it down by market, the commercial aviation MRO increase is driven by higher labor, parts and production costs that continue to stymie the segment. OEM delivery rates for new aircraft still are not meeting expectations, so older aircraft that were scheduled to retire must remain in service. This results in operators investing in another C or D airframe check and more legacy engine overhauls. While this should be good news for the aftermarket, MRO capacity is tight, so longer-term planning is required.

One thing that should positively change in 2025 is an increase in used serviceable material, for which the industry has been clamoring. At the end of 2024, teardown facilities reported higher demand for dismantling services. The industry can expect about 200 more aircraft retirements in 2025 than in 2024. In addition, some 150 aircraft are planned to undergo passenger-to-freighter conversions during 2025, according to Aviation Week Network forecast figures.

Similar to commercial aviation, business aviation flight hours continue to climb, especially for fractional and charter aircraft. This in turn is fueling more aircraft orders and use of the existing fleet, although the market is normalizing after the flurry of growth and new entrants over the past few years.

Like commercial aviation, expect business aviation aircraft retirements to increase, with more than 450 projected to exit the fleet in 2025, according to Aviation Week Network fleet data, which also indicates that retirements are likely to accelerate over the next seven years.

From an engine perspective, the Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6 will continue to dominate the in-service engine fleet; nearly 17,000 of them will be powering single-engine and multiengine turboprops in 2025. While the PT6 represents the largest in-service fleet, turbofan engines that power long-range aircraft will generate bigger MRO expenditures, with the Rolls-Royce BR700 in the top spot for 2025.

Business aviation engine MRO demand in 2025 is forecast to generate $3.5 billion, according to Aviation Week Network data.

North America generates the most MRO demand for both business aviation and military markets. However, the military Asia-Pacific fleet is larger, and MRO for it is growing faster.

Unlike the commercial market—which is dominated by one aircraft type, narrowbodies—the military fleet is a broad mix of bomber, fighter, surveillance, rotary-wing, trainer and transport aircraft. That translates to a wider range of engines, but the GE T700/CT7, which powers various helicopters, is the dominant military powerplant.

MRO demand for civil helicopters is expected to generate $8.1 billion in 2025, with components and engines accounting for 66% of that. Unlike the other segments, the civil helicopter fleet has plateaued, and the in-service fleet is expected to age, which will increase MRO costs.

The Airbus H125/H130 will continue to be the predominant civil helicopter in 2025, with more than 4,800 in operation, representing about 22% of the civil helicopter in-service fleet, according to Aviation Week Network data. H125s/H130s, powered by the Arriel engine, are expected to generate about $1.3 billion in MRO demand in 2025.