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The Lockheed Martin F-35 is becoming increasingly common in Europe, as 13 nations either operate or have ordered the type. Portugal and Spain are expected to follow.
Even before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House and brings his expected influence on the war in Ukraine, Europe is anticipating several big decisions in the opening months of 2025 that will shape the region’s defense ambitions and industrial prospects for years to come.
The European Union’s new commissioner—combining defense and space in one portfolio for the first time—is calling for an acceleration of plans to bolster the region’s security agenda. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is headed for general elections, and the UK is due to wrap up a strategic defense review that was requested by the government that took power in July. Both events are likely to shape the region’s military policies.
The tone for European defense probably will be set early in 2025. The new European Commission, which took office Dec. 1, aims to publish a white paper on the future of the region’s defense within 100 days under Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, a former prime minister of Lithuania.
- EU defense white paper is due in early 2025
- London is poised to wrap up defense review
“Our defense spending must increase,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said as she took office for her second term. “We need a single market for defense. We need to strengthen the defense industrial base. We need to improve our military mobility. And we need common European projects on defense. . . . We have no time to waste. And we must be as ambitious as the threats are serious.”
European governments have ramped up investment in defense in response to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. EU member states’ defense spending is now equivalent to around 1.9% of the EU’s GDP, the European Defense Agency’s Coordinated Annual Review on Defense stated in November, estimating spending would rise to about €326 billion ($345 billion) in 2024 and continue climbing.
The funding is helping to address capability shortfalls, particularly in munition stocks and air defenses, and to finalize long-delayed projects. While concerns remain that many nations are far from prepared for high-intensity warfare, the report says this will improve as spending rises.
The UK has pledged to lift defense spending to 2.5% of GDP; the time frame is expected to be clarified as part of the ongoing defense review. The review is likely to identify investment priorities as well as steps to free up money in some defense areas to bolster spending in others. London has disclosed plans to trim several programs, including reducing its fleet of Boeing CH-47 Chinooks, retiring its remaining Airbus Puma helicopters and phasing out the Thales Watchkeeper uncrewed aircraft system.
Germany has said it wants a top-up buy of 20 Eurofighters, too. That decision will need to be reconfirmed once a new government takes office following general elections early in the new year. The outcome could shape defense spending issues more widely, as the conservatives, currently leading in the polls, have indicated they may be ready to take on debt to increase defense spending and sustain support for Ukraine.
Lockheed Martin’s F-35 has become the preeminent combat aircraft in Europe; two more nations, Greece and Romania, committed in 2024 to acquiring the type. There are few Euro-pean nations left for Lockheed Martin to pursue. The only real prospects remaining are Portugal and Spain, and procurement of the F-35 is highly controversial in Spain. Top-up orders from existing customers are likely: The Netherlands already has placed two, and Italy is interested in following.
Poland also is poised to continue its shopping spree, as a decision on buying additional combat aircraft is pending.
Also on the agenda in the coming months are European efforts on advanced uncrewed combat aircraft. While those are part of the two flagship future combat aircraft architectures in Europe—the FCAS and GCAP—air force officials in France, Germany, Italy, the UK and elsewhere have voiced interest in fast-tracking work on such systems.
Among the hottest items over the past two years in Europe have been air and missile defense equipment. Those purchases are showing little sign of slowing down and may be further spurred after Russia’s strike in November on a Ukrainian rocket factory. The new conventionally armed, medium-range ballistic missile Russia fired seemingly carried multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles.
In response to Moscow’s use of ballistic and cruise missiles, several European countries have sought to develop and acquire ground-launched deep-strike weapons through the Euro-pean Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) in a bid to deter Russian aggression. France, Germany, Poland, Sweden and the UK have signed up to ELSA, and the Netherlands wants to join them.
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