Military Aircraft Competitions To Watch, 2025-34

FIGHTERS

Competitions for fighter aircraft represent a market opportunity worth $63 billion over the next decade. The lion’s share of potential deals—$24.8 billion—comes from the Middle East.

U.S.

After reviewing plans for the Next-Generation Air Dominance program to replace the Lockheed Martin F-22, the U.S. Air Force has punted the decision to the Trump administration. Source selection is still expected in 2025 for the Navy’s F/A-XX despite a 67% cut to the program’s budget.

INDIA

The Indian Air Force reportedly has been preparing a request for proposals for its Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft tender to be ready by mid-2025 or early 2026. Source selection is expected in 2026 or 2027. India’s defense ministry, however, has been urging the service to prioritize indigenous equipment such as the Tejas Mk. 1A.

POLAND

Warsaw originally intended to buy two squadrons of air superiority aircraft (either the Boeing F-15EX or Eurofighter Typhoon) but is now considering the multirole Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 and F-35. Source selection is expected in early 2025. Poland also has shown interest in the Korea Aerospace Industries KF-21.

TRAINER/LIGHT COMBAT AIRCRAFT

Militaries are looking to buy $21.6 billion in trainer and light combat aircraft through 2034. Egypt, with a 100-aircraft program valued at $2.9 billion, represents the biggest market opportunity.

EGYPT

The Egyptian Air Force is evaluating replacements for its Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jets and Hongdu K-8s advanced jet trainers (AJT). Warming ties between Rome and Cairo may grant the Leonardo M-346 an advantage, while Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has been keen to offer local assembly work for the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization.

U.S.

The U.S. Navy seeks 145-200 Undergraduate Jet Training System AJTs to replace its aging McDonnell Douglas T-45s. but has delayed the contract award to fiscal 2028. Competitors include the KAI-Lockheed Martin TF-50N, Boeing T-7B and Leonardo-Textron M-346N.

INDIA

By the end of 2025, the Indian Air Force plans to replace its Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) HJT-16 Kiran intermediate jet trainers (IJT). The new aircraft would transition cadets from the HTT-40 basic flight trainer to the BAE Hawk. HAL’s HJT-36 completed spin testing in 2022 but has yet to receive orders. The company also has proposed its HLFT-42 supersonic conversion trainer.

PAKISTAN

Islamabad is looking to replace its legacy K-8 and Cessna T-37 advanced flight trainers. Pakistan was reportedly in negotiations in November 2023 to acquire Hongdu L-15s from China for lead-in fighter training, which would complement its twin-seat Chengdu Aircraft Corp./Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17Bs.

SPAIN

The Spanish Air and Space Force says it is looking at four existing AJT options and a possible new design to replace its Northrop F-5s around 2030. Airbus offered its Future Jet Trainer previously but is now partnering with Leonardo on the M-346, competing against the Boeing T-7A, KAI T-50 and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) Hurjet.

ROTARY-WING ATTACK AIRCRAFT

The attack helicopter market is expected to reach $2.4 billion over the next 10 years, with opportunities largely in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

BANGLADESH

The country’s Forces Goal 2030 plan calls for acquiring attack helicopters. Bangladesh reportedly has considered the Boeing AH-64E, Eurocopter Tiger, Mil Mi-28NE and TAI T-129B. However, civil unrest that toppled the Sheikh Hasina government in August is likely to delay the tender.

MYANMAR

Since at least 2021, Myanmar has been interested in augmenting its fleet of eight Mil Mi-35P attack helicopters. As the junta is engaged in genocide against its Rohingya minority and a war against a broadly pro-democracy insurgency, Western arms embargoes limit options to Chinese or Russian aircraft.

UKRAINE

The country will need to replace its Mil Mi-24 fleet eventually with a Western alternative and has requested secondhand Bell AH-1Zs. The AH-64E would be ideal but is expensive. Leonardo may pitch its AW249. Any replacement is unlikely to materialize until hostilities with Russia conclude and then will be contingent on available funding.

ALGERIA

The longtime operator of Mi-24s upgraded to the Super Hind configuration by Advanced Technologies and Engineering will need to replace them in the next few years. In 2016-19, Algiers acquired 42 Mi-28NEs. Procurement of more Mi-28s would be sensible to replace the Mi-24s, and Russia is Algeria’s primary security partner.

UNCREWED AIRCRAFT

The drone market has been growing rapidly and is set to reach $27 billion through 2034, with most of the expenditure driven by Pentagon demand. More than 1,800 uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) are to be delivered over the decade.

ISRAEL

The country is almost certain to launch a major UAS recapitalization program by the end of the forecast period, as much of its fleet has been in service since the early 2000s. In October, a leaked U.S. intelligence document discussed the fielding of a low-observable long-range UAS, designated “RA-1,” that enabled covert surveillance of Iran.

U.S.

The U.S. Air Force is looking to acquire at least 1,000 Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) over at least three increments fielded in two-year cycles starting in fiscal 2028. Anduril’s Fury and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc.’s Gambit are the Increment 1 winners. The service is working to define its goals for the next iteration, subject to a review by the Trump administration.

TURKEY

Ankara is expected to field a fleet of CCA by the 2030s to complement the indigenous TAI Kaan fifth-generation fighter. Both the TAI Anka-3 and Bayraktar Kizilelma are undergoing flight testing.

TRANSPORT AND TANKER AIRCRAFT

The market in this segment is expected to reach $38 billion, led by demand in North America, although Asia-Pacific buyers are not far behind.

SAUDI ARABIA

The country is looking to acquire 33 medium transports to replace its fleet of 43 Lockheed C-130Hs. In 2012, the Pentagon disclosed the potential sale of 20 C-130Js and five KC-130Js worth $6.7 billion, but Riyadh ordered only two KC-130Js. Lockheed Martin is again offering the C-130J against the Embraer C-390 and Airbus A400M.

INDIA

The Indian Air Force is looking to replace some 100 Antonov An-32 light and 17 Ilyushin IL-76 heavy transports. The service issued a request for information in December 2022 seeking 40-80 transports with an 18-30-ton capacity. Competitors include the C-390, C-130J and A400M.

ITALY

Rome is seeking six tankers after rejecting a sole-source acquisition of Boeing KC-46As following its purchase of Boeing KC-767s. A Boeing representative tells Aviation Week the sale collapsed on industrial grounds rather than service requirements. Airbus plans to offer the latest variant of its A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport.

SPECIAL MISSION AIRCRAFT

Market opportunities for these diverse aircraft types are set to reach a value of $24 billion.

FRANCE

The French Navy is looking to replace its Dassault Atlantique fleet in 2030-40. Airbus is offering a modified A321XLR maritime patrol aircraft and Dassault a Falcon 10X derivative. Source selection is expected by 2026. The competition effectively supersedes the defunct Franco-German Maritime Airborne Warfare Systems program.

SOUTH KOREA

The Republic of Korea Air Force seeks four more airborne early warning and control aircraft by 2031 to complement its four Boeing E-7s. Seoul’s defense procurement agency reportedly has been “struggling” in negotiations with Boeing over higher-than-expected costs. Additional contenders include the Saab GlobalEye and L3Harris-Korean Air Global 6500 CAEW.

SAUDI ARABIA

U.S. Air Force officials in August 2022 confirmed that Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in the Boeing E-7A. The Royal Saudi Air Force is undertaking a two-phase Boeing E-3 midlife update program worth $2 billion. However, other E-3 operators, such as the U.S. and UK, have opted to retire their aircraft due to high operating and support costs.