以战略数字化为抓手，打破开发成本上升规律 | Breaking the law of rising development costs with strategic digitalization

奥古斯丁“第十六定律”指出，飞机一代更比一代昂贵，几十年来这一“定律”似乎都与现实情况相符。如今新一代数字能力出现，飞机开发成本螺旋式上升这一现象背后的复杂性问题得以解决，该规律也终于被打破。

Augustine’s “Law XVI” noted that every generation of aircraft is more expensive than the last, and for decades this “law” seemed to be true. Now the spiral of rising aircraft development costs has finally been conquered, thanks to new digital capabilities to handle the complexity that drives it.

西门子约翰·奥康纳（John O’ Connor）解释了航空航天与国防（A&D）领域的进步为什么往往会导致复杂性提高，以及西门子Xcelerator如何利用贯穿设计、规划、生产以及生产线机械设备整个生产流程的数字线程来控制这种复杂性。

John O’Connor of Siemens explains why advances in A&D tend to increase complexity, and how Siemens Xcelerator can bring that complexity under control with digital threads running from design through planning and production and right into machines on the production line.

西门子数字化工业集团的解决方案是提供Xcelerator，这是为航空航天与国防领域量身定做的解决方案组合，帮助企业解决专业化与系统驱动下的产品开发问题。自动化方法加快了设计进程，检查并帮助解决设计难题，确保产品设计在每个阶段都能满足空气动力学、电气、机械、热和其他方面的要求。

Siemens Digital Industries’ approach offers Xcelerator, a portfolio of solutions tailored to A&D for specialized, systems-driven product development. Automated methods speed design processes, check for and help resolve design conflicts, and ensure that aerodynamic, electrical, mechanical, thermal and other requirements are met at every stage. 

西门子Xcelerator还与自动化生产系统对接，在生产过程中提供了前所未有的控制水平，确保最终产品完全符合指定需求和可追踪需求。

Siemens Xcelerator also interfaces with automated manufacturing systems, giving an unprecedented level of control in the manufacturing process, ensuring that the final product conforms exactly to specified and traceable requirements.

航空航天技术的进步会导致复杂性进一步提高。但在西门子Xcelerator的帮助下，复杂性的提高并不一定会导致成本增加或是开发时间延长。

Advances in aerospace technology will continue to introduce further complexity. But with Siemens Xcelerator greater complexity need not mean higher costs or longer development times.

问：什么是奥古斯丁“第十六定律”，西门子Xcelerator如何帮助企业打破这一定律？

Q: What is Augustine’s XVI Law and how is Siemens Xcelerator helping companies break it?

答：奥古斯丁“第十六定律”是美国前陆军副部长、洛克希德·马丁公司前首席执行官诺曼·奥古斯丁（Norman Augustine）提出的一个调侃性的看法。 他指出飞机会变得越来越贵，到2054年，美国国防部将只能买得起一架飞机。

更高的性能设计意味着更高的复杂性，因为每一代产品都会集成更多的系统、电子器件、软件和各种零零碎碎的东西，最终导致成本成倍增加。虽然这一说法很幽默，但奥古斯丁的评估从根本上来说是正确的。

在新型B-21轰炸机的设计生产中，这种情况终于得到了改变。诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司成功以低于预算的花销提前完成了该项目。我们是否发现了奥古斯丁定律的漏洞？诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司首席执行官凯西·瓦登（Kathy Warden）于近期表示，采用数字设计能力和先进生产技术是该项目成功的关键。

十年前，诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司开始与西门子合作，利用西门子Xcelerator系列产品实现了该公司产品开发过程的完全数字化。如今他们认为数字化工具是他们能够以低于预算的成本完成项目的关键所在——这就是他们打破奥古斯丁定律的方式。

A: Augustine’s XVI “law” is a tongue-in-cheek observation by Norm Augustine, a former US Under Secretary of the Army and retired CEO of Lockheed Martin.  He noted that aircraft were getting so expensive that by 2054 the US DoD would only be able to buy one plane. 

Higher performance designs implicitly have higher levels of complexity as each generation brings more systems, more electronics, more software, more of almost everything into the product. This has led to exponentially increased costs. Although speaking humorously, Augustine was fundamentally correct in his assessment.

That has changed at last with the new B-21 bomber. Northrop Grumman is ahead of schedule and under budget on the project. Has a loophole been found in Augustine’s Law? Kathy Warden, CEO of Northrop Grumman, stated recently this success was enabled by using digital design capabilities and advanced manufacturing technologies.

A decade ago, Northrop Grumman embarked on a partnership with Siemens to fully digitalize its product development processes with the Siemens Xcelerator portfolio. Today they attribute being under budget to the digital tools they use – that’s how they are breaking Augustine’s Law.

问：西门子Xcelerator是如何解决设计过程中的复杂性问题的？

Q: How does Siemens Xcelerator overcome the challenges of complexity in the design process? 

以西门子Xcelerator为基石的数字化战略建议采用以系统为导向的生产流程，应用由数字线程连接的高保真数字孪生，数字线程则会贯穿从设计到生产的整个流程。

例如，像线束设计这类问题就包括完全不同的多个方面：机械包装、电气逻辑、功能性能。每个方面都会随着需求的更新或设计的演变而改变。当这些不同方面之间发生冲突时，这种冲突往往要到实际建造和安装线束时才会被发现。

西门子Xcelerator实现了电气和机械设计的交叉融合，使您能够充分了解每一个变化的影响。比方说，我们要求部分电气系统要在液压系统的特定距离外。西门子Xcelerator会自动检查违规情况并加以标记，避免了在开发过程后期以极大的代价再次进行更改。

飞机上集成了更多的电子设备，这意味着飞机需要消散更多的热量。Xcelerator在设计过程早期就针对这些影响因素与其他方面进行了建模，确保了适当的热管理，并在生产前解决了一切潜在的问题。

Xcelerator还包括模拟和测试功能。无论是减轻噪音和振动，验证飞行控制，还是连接虚拟世界与物理世界，西门子都可以在生产阶段前对其进行模拟。

因此，当飞机设计中互动系统的复杂性因素越来越多时——空气动力学、电气、机械、热学——西门子Xcelerator数字孪生和数字线程能够帮助您充满信心地管理开发过程。

Digitalization strategies built on Siemens Xcelerator recommend a systems-oriented process using high-fidelity digital twins connected by digital threads, beginning in design and extending to production.
For example, if you look at something like electrical harness design, you have fundamentally different aspects: mechanical packaging, electrical logic, functional performance. Each changes in response to requirement updates or design evolutions. And when conflicts occur between these aspects, frequently they aren’t found until you actually build and install the harness. 

Siemens Xcelerator intersects the electrical and mechanical designs allowing you to fully understand the impact of every change. Let's say there's a requirement that certain electrical systems cannot be within a specified distance of hydraulic systems. Siemens Xcelerator automatically checks for violations and highlights them, avoiding costly changes later in the development process.

More electronics in aircraft means more heat to dissipate. Xcelerator models these effects simultaneously with other aspects early in the design process.  This ensures proper thermal management and resolves any potential problems before production.

Xcelerator also includes simulation and test capabilities. Whether mitigating noise and vibration concerns, validating flight controls, or otherwise bridging the virtual and physical worlds; Siemens can simulate it all before transition to production.

So, while you have growing complexities of interacting systems in an aircraft design – aerodynamic, electrical, mechanical, thermal – Siemens Xcelerator digital twins and digital threads let you manage the development process with confidence.

问：西门子Xcelerator在生产方面有什么帮助？

Q: How does Siemens Xcelerator help on the production side?

西门子数字化工业集团以独特而强有力的方式连接产品开发、工厂自动化和运动控制能力多个方面，这使得数字线程能够贯穿从产品设计到物理硬件制造零件和组件的整个过程。

例如，复合材料设计工程师定义了轻而坚固的层压板。复合材料层压板中的每一层都对应着一组生产操作。在自动铺层方面，西门子Xcelerator根据层压板定义驱动制造执行指令和机床。在机器铺设每一层时，用户能够监控生产过程并验证其是否符合设计，在数字线程的帮助下，用户可一直追溯到最初的驱动要求。

许多自动化复合材料铺层机使用西门子的硬件来追求高精度和高可靠性，这提高了生产效率，减少了机床的启动时间。Xcelerator的过程分析功能可以验证硬件性能，由此数字线程可以与驱动设计联系起来，并对产品和生产过程进行全面验证。 在西门子Xcelerator的帮助下实现生产过程的闭环能够极大地提高产品开发效率。

这种透明的整合过程覆盖整个工厂以及更大层面的整个企业。温度、湿度、材料批次质量等许多参数必须在生产车间进行监测和控制。一些非直观的相互作用会导致不可预见的质量或生产速度的问题，通过分析这些参数可以帮助发现这些互动关系。西门子Xcelerator能够帮助用户理解这些相互作用并应对相关挑战。

Siemens Digital Industries connects its product development, factory automation and motion control capabilities in unique and powerful ways. This enables digital threads to run all the way from product design to physical hardware fabricating parts and assemblies.
For example, composite design engineers define light and strong laminates. Each layer in the composite laminate corresponds to a set of manufacturing operations. For automated layup, Siemens Xcelerator drives manufacturing execution and machine tools based on the laminate definition.  As the machine deposits each layer, users monitor the build process and verify conformance to the design, which, via the digital thread, is traceable all the way back to the initial driving requirements.

Many automated composite layup machines utilize Siemens hardware for high precision and reliability. This improves production rate and reduces machine tool startup time. By verifying hardware performance with process analytics via Xcelerator, the digital thread can be linked back to the driving design, and a full verification of the product and process enabled.  Closing this loop with Siemens Xcelerator offers potential for huge improvements in product development efficiency.

This transparent integration extends across the factory and into the larger enterprise. Many parameters such as temperature, humidity, material batch quality, etc. must be monitored and controlled on the manufacturing floor.  Analyzing these parameters finds non-intuitive interactions which lead to unforeseen quality or production rate issues. Siemens Xcelerator helps understand those interactions and resolve any associated challenges. 

问：客户是否需要采用整个西门子Xcelerator系列来从中获益？

Q: Do clients need to take on the entire Siemens Xcelerator portfolio to get the benefit of this technology? 

我们的解决方案允许客户选用任何他们想要的部分。当您追求更高的数字化水平时，您可以尝试选用其中一种能力。一开始您可能会朝着数字孪生的方向发展，但不久之后您就需要考虑整个开发周期的整合问题，而这意味着您将为贯穿整个生产过程的数字线程打下基础。

您可以选用互不相干的系统来尝试数字化。长期以来，飞机制造往往选用集成度较低的传统系统。但当下的行业领导者正在密切关注战略数字化，着重建立从设计阶段到生产制造阶段的集成流程。诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司是这一领域的领军者，该公司展示了这一战略可以带来怎样的成功。

Our approach allows customers to use any part they want. You can take a little nibble on one capability or the other as you move towards a higher state of digitalization. You’re probably going to move toward digital twins at first, but shortly after you need to think about integration across the development cycle. That will mean laying down foundations for digital threads running through the process. 

You can attempt digitalization by cobbling together a bunch of non-connected systems. Airplanes have been built for a long time using less integrated, legacy systems. But industry leaders today are intensely focused on strategic digitalization and building an integrated process from design to the manufacturing floor. And at the top end of that we have Northrop Grumman who are showing how successful that strategy can be. 

问：上述解决方案如何与终端客户想要的数字化战略相匹配？

Q: How does this fit in with digitalization strategies that might be desired by an end customer?

飞机复杂性的增加会为客户管理带来很多挑战，公司应对这些挑战的方法之一是与客户同时应用系统驱动的方法。例如，客户利用Xcelerator将需求传达给供应商，然后它们会被映射到功能定义、产品特性、生产计划和产品的最终买断上。西门子Xcelerator不仅支持从客户到生产车间的生产流程，还能最终回归到终端客户并实现闭环，无论终端是商业飞机制造商、军事部门，还是其他类型的客户。

西门子Xcelerator为航空航天领域提供了该行业急需的数字化方法，这是缩短周期时间、减少风险、打破奥古斯丁“第十六定律”的关键。

One of the ways companies address customer management challenges that come with increased aircraft complexity is by applying a systems-driven approach in tandem with a customer. For example, customers use Xcelerator to flow requirements down to the supplier.  They are then mapped to functional definitions, product features, production plans, and final buyoff of product. Not only is Siemens Xcelerator supporting this flow from customer down to production floor, but it also closes the loop back to the ultimate customer, whether that is a commercial airframer, military service, or whomever. 

Siemens Xcelerator provides a digitalization approach for aerospace that the industry now aspires to. This offers the key to reduced cycle times, reduced risks, and breaking Augustine’s XVI Law.