Business jet demand was once linked to a wide array of economic indicators, especially equities markets and corporate profits. Since 2008, these links have broken down.

Critics of counterinsurgency say it represents the triumph of tactics over strategy. Looking at the Air Force’s mooted OA-X and A-X2 procurement programs, and the A-10 retirement debate, one can see exactly the same issues in play.

There are strong reasons to doubt that Iran will ride to the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry’s rescue this year—or anytime soon.