The global cruise capacity has maintained a steady growth of +6 per cent each year for the past 15 years. At the end of 2011, there were 270 cruise liners with 405,000 berths with a total capacity of over 800,000 passengers. Interestingly, the number of ships has reduced over the past three years and yet the number of berths has significantly increased. This is largely due to the increased demand for larger cruise ships such as Royal Caribbean Cruise Line’s Oasis of the Seas which has capacity for 5,400 passengers and 2,400 crew.
Taking an average turnaround of two weeks (many of the larger vessels are weekly turnarounds), then the global cruise industry currently has capacity for over 21 million passengers per year. Interestingly, by 2015, there will be 20 new additional ships in service with 60,000 berths and capacity of 120,000 passengers – an additional 3.1 million passengers per year. The question is, where will these new ships be deployed?
So, why is cruising good business for the airlines? Well, cruise lines create a regular and predictable demand; the passenger volumes are known way in advance and can be reliably planned for; loads are back to back to/from the air gateway city; much of the demand is on weekends when high yield business traffic is lighter and with increasing international cruise line deployment, more of the business is long-haul.
Cruising is not only a significant factor in new Route Development, but its importance is growing in significance as the whole cruise industry continues to grow every year. Europe and Asia are the two areas which have seen the most significant growth and this trend is set to continue. Fundamentally, cruising in North America has always been a “drive to cruise” market whereas in Europe and Asia, most of the cruising is “fly to cruise” and this is where there is increased relevance to the route development community.
At Cruise Shipping Miami last month, the world’s leading cruise lines discussed the regions which will feature increased ship deployment over the coming years. Not surprisingly, Europe and Asia were featured heavily. Furthermore, for the first time ever, a cruise line (Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines) will be present at Routes Europe in Tallinn in order to brief delegates on their deployment strategy for the coming years as well as to strengthen their relationships with the region’s airlines, airports and tourism authorities.
Cruising’s future growth in Europe and Asia will rely heavily on airlift and for these reasons, over the coming years, cruising will become a far more significant route development issue.
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