Analysis: India-China Air Connectivity Poised To Return After Five-Year Hiatus

India and China have agreed in principle to resume direct air services, nearly five years after flights were suspended.

The decision, announced during a visit by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to Beijing, represents a significant step toward mending diplomatic ties between the two nations and restoring travel links disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions.

Before services were halted in early 2020, carriers such as Air India, Air China and China Southern Airlines operated direct flights connecting major cities, including New Delhi, Mumbai, Beijing and Shanghai.

According to OAG Schedules Analyser data, there were nine nonstop routes between India and mainland China in 2019. China Southern Airlines led with a 31% share of all seat capacity, followed by China Eastern Airlines (27.4%) and Air China (16.8%). Other operators comprised Air India (10.6%), Shandong Airlines (5.7%), IndiGo (5.2%) and RwandAir (3.3%).

However, the onset of the pandemic and a 2020 border clash that heightened tensions between the two neighbors has resulted in the prolonged suspension of all scheduled routes. As of now, no direct services between the two countries have resumed.

On Jan. 27, India’s Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that both sides are working to finalize details for resuming air connectivity. The ministry stated that discussions have focused on enhancing “people-to-people exchanges” and expanding economic cooperation, both of which have been severely impacted by the absence of direct flights.

The ministry added that “relevant technical authorities on the two sides will meet and negotiate an updated framework for this purpose.” However, no timeline has yet been provided for the resumption of flights.

In 2019, total O&D traffic between the two countries amounted to about 1.25 million two-way passengers, according to Sabre Market Intelligence. New Delhi-Shanghai was the busiest city pair, with approximately 149,000 passengers, followed by New Delhi-Guangzhou and Mumbai-Shanghai.

In contrast, the latest preliminary data for 2024 shows O&D traffic has fallen to about 600,000 two-way passengers, with most travelers relying on one-stop connections through Hong Kong, Singapore or Bangkok. Mumbai-Shanghai ranked as the largest city pair last year, with about 60,500 passengers.