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Wizz Air’s European capacity in summer 2025 is set to grow 11% over last year.
The European airline sector is heading into another summer under the shadow of continued supply constraints as delivery and maintenance issues impact new aircraft, engines and cabin products across fleets.
Analysis of OAG Schedules Analyser data indicates that overall capacity from and within Europe for the summer 2025 season will see only marginal growth of around 1% year-on-year. While some markets—such as Poland, Hungary, and Cyprus—are expected to outperform the regional average, the broader trend points to more limited expansion across the continent.
For Europe’s largest LCCs—Ryanair, Wizz Air, and easyJet—strong demand remains, but operational challenges are forcing each to rethink their growth plans, often leading to capacity reallocations and route adjustments.
Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary has made his frustrations clear. The carrier had originally planned to grow its passenger base to 215 million in the 2025/26 financial year but is now expected to struggle to reach 206 million because of Boeing’s delivery setbacks.
The Irish ULCC expects to have nine additional Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s ahead of the peak summer 2025 season, with the remaining 29 aircraft from its 210 MAX order book only expected to arrive by March 2026. Ryanair then hopes to start receiving MAX 10s from spring 2027, provided the model is certified before the end of this year.
“It is very frustrating that we can’t grow at a time when most of our competitors across Europe are heavily constrained because of Airbus engine repairs,” O’Leary said. “If Boeing had delivered the 29 aircraft we were due to get this year, we would be growing by about 10 million passengers.”
Ryanair is reallocating its new capacity to markets offering tax breaks and financial incentives. Poland, Sweden, and parts of regional Italy will benefit, while countries that are increasing aviation taxes, such as Denmark, France and the UK, look set to see reduced investment by Ryanair. In Denmark, a two-aircraft base at Billund will close, while all routes to and from Aalborg will be suspended.
“It’s about time these European politicians actually twigged that if you want growth in European air travel, abolish these stupid taxes,” O’Leary said. “The benefits flow immediately to consumers, yet the UK is raising Air Passenger Duty instead. This harms growth and encourages us to reallocate capacity away from the UK to markets like Sweden, Italy, Hungary and others.”
Despite its constrained fleet, Ryanair will still expand in key markets. Growth hotspots include Spain, where a capacity increase of about 8% is planned despite an ongoing dispute with airport operator AENA over regional airport charges, while Portugal and Poland are each set to see a 9% boost in capacity. Ryanair is also growing in Ireland, unveiling its largest summer schedule at Dublin Airport (DUB) following the temporary suspension of the airport’s passenger cap.
WIZZ OPTIMISM
Like Ryanair, Wizz Air continues to feel the effects of industry-wide capacity constraints. The Hungarian ULCC has faced significant disruptions over the past 12 months related to the ongoing Pratt & Whitney engine maintenance issues, which have forced the airline to ground a large proportion of its Airbus A320neo-family aircraft fleet. An estimated 40 aircraft are expected to remain grounded through fiscal year 2026—representing about 20% of Wizz’s fleet—with the carrier reducing its full-year profit forecast because of the impact.
Despite the disruption, CEO József Váradi is optimistic that the worst of the groundings is behind the airline. “We are in a very different position today than we were a year ago when the issue had just started,” he said. “We lost our ability to grow because of the groundings; now we have regained the ability.”
The company expects to return to a 15-20% annual capacity growth profile over the next five years as grounded aircraft return to service and new A321neos are integrated into the fleet. According to OAG data, Wizz’s overall European capacity will be about 11% higher this summer compared with last, with Poland, Romania, Hungary and Moldova seeing double-digit percentage increases.
Váradi said the focus would be on “densifying the network as opposed to diversifying” as the airline regains momentum following aircraft groundings and supply chain disruptions. It is positioning itself to capitalize on growth in Central and Eastern Europe, its core market, where air travel demand is projected to increase significantly over the next decade. The carrier estimates the region will generate 100 million new passengers by 2035—led by Poland, where traffic is forecast to rise by almost 36 million passengers annually by 2029 to over 90 million.
“We have an extensive backbone of a network ... but we still need to put meat on the bones,” Váradi said. “We have been a lot denser in recent years when it comes to frequencies—that is very positive because it creates market leadership, it creates brand awareness in the marketplace and, through that, enhances profitability.”
EASYJET RESILIENCE
As easyJet enters the summer 2025 season, the UK-based airline is balancing strategic growth with operational resilience. Under the leadership of new CEO Kenton Jarvis, the carrier is targeting an 8% capacity increase while refining its network to maximize efficiency.
EasyJet has already received seven of nine Airbus A320neo-family aircraft expected this financial year, with the remaining two scheduled for early delivery ahead of the summer peak. However, unlike Wizz, the LCC has been unaffected by Pratt engine issues.
Jarvis acknowledged that certain new routes require pricing stimulation before reaching maturity, but said the airline’s longer leisure routes, such as those to North Africa and the Canary Islands, are proving popular.
He added that operational resilience is a major focus for easyJet this summer. The airline has increased the number of spare aircraft within its fleet to 14 to minimize disruptions and has doubled its investment in aircraft spares between 2023 and 2025. “We saw last year that the air traffic controllers throughout Europe spectacularly let themselves down,” Jarvis said. “There was a huge increase in ATC [air traffic control] delay minutes for the whole industry, with an inability to cope with the capacity that was advised.
“I hope a year on that it will be a better experience, but on the assumption that it won’t be, we’ve taken a number of resilience measures and made some investments which will make sure we are better equipped.”
Italy is set to be a major growth market for easyJet following the Lufthansa-ITA Airways merger, which granted easyJet additional slots in Milan and Rome. The airline is basing eight additional aircraft in these cities, resulting in a 145% increase in capacity at Milan Linate Airport (LIN) and a 35% increase at Rome Fiumicino Airport (FCO).
Additionally, easyJet is expanding its offering between Italy and Germany by over 50%, offering more than 1 million seats between the two countries this summer. The airline is also growing its footprint in Greece and Spain, responding to continued strong demand for leisure travel.
Despite ongoing supply constraints, Europe’s largest LCCs are adapting through targeted expansion and operational efficiencies to maintain profitability. With stable fuel prices and strong travel demand, Ryanair, Wizz and easyJet remain optimistic for a robust summer 2025.
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