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Growing commercial aircraft deliveries over the next decade are expected to broadly benefit the engine market.
FORT WORTH—Demand is surging across commercial aviation even as an imbalance persists between supply and demand, according to the Aviation Week Network 2025 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast presented at the Aero Engines Americas conference on Jan. 28.
Hamstrung by supply chain and labor challenges, deliveries by major aircraft OEMs in the fourth quarter of 2024 were down 17% over 2023 and 20% over 2019. Overall, in 2024, deliveries in 2024 fell 10% on an annual basis.
Yet production is expected to ramp up in the coming years, resulting in 21,979 new deliveries from 2024-33. Airbus and Boeing are forecast to continue dominating the market with respective shares of 51% and 40%, while Comac and Embraer are predicted to each account for 3% of deliveries.
China’s Comac has long sought to be a bigger player in commercial aviation, but has had difficulty ramping up production. On Jan. 20, Comac Vice President Shen Bo said that the Shanghai-based company would “dispatch 30 units of the C919 [narrowbody jet] this year with a production capacity scale of up to 50 units,” according to the Chinese news portal ThePaper.cn.
While there continues to be intense speculation about Comac’s potential, Embraer may be better poised to challenge the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. In December 2024, Aviation Week reported that it has learned that multiple large airlines in the U.S. and Europe have told the Brazilian company that they will collectively order hundreds of jets if a new program is launched.
As the major OEMs boost aircraft deliveries in the coming years, “that will mean a lot of engines,” said Brian Kough, senior director of intelligence and custom solutions at Aviation Week Network.
Several engine-makers are expected to account for the lion’s share of deliveries from 2025-34. CFM International’s market share is forecast at 56%, while Pratt & Whitney’s is expected to be 22%. General Electric is expected to account for 12% of deliveries, Rolls-Royce 7% and Pratt & Whitney Canada 3%.
In terms of aircraft deliveries by region from 2025-34, North America is predicted to be the largest market at 23%, followed by Asia Pacific and Western Europe at 19% each. During this period, 10,100 engine deliveries are expected.
Strong engine demand will likely translate to a healthy aftermarket. Aviation Week estimates a 3.9% compound annual growth rate for engine MRO between 2025 and 2034, without accounting for inflation. Engine maintenance will be the largest market, followed by components, line maintenance, modifications and airframe heavy.
New-generation engines are expected to become increasingly prominent in commercial aviation over the next decade, creating challenges for CFM given rising demand for the Leap. Aviation Week estimates that CFM will need to boost engine production by 80% by the end of 2027 compared to 2023 production levels to meet projected demand for the Leap from the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 MAX. Overall, Aviation Week projects that there will be 24,500 Leap engines needed between 2025 and 2034, not counting spares.
Persistent demand for the Leap engine will also be reflected in the aftermarket. While MRO demand for the Leap is currently just $0.1 billion, by 2034 that is forecast to surge to $4.1 billion.
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