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Joby has demonstrated the potential for eVTOLs to perform U.S. Air Force logistics missions with flights at Edwards AFB, California.
Nonprofit research organization Rand has found little appetite within U.S. Air Force commands for electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft despite the service’s efforts to stimulate development of a domestic manufacturing industry.
The report—Amping Airpower - Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing for the U.S. Air Force—was completed in July 2022 but not released publicly until Sept. 30. Rand found that Air Force demand for eVTOL will be a fraction of the commercial market and the service lacks mechanisms to shape the future market.
While noting that eVTOLs could be used instead of cars to transport security personnel at ICBM fields or provide operational support airlift where transport aircraft are in short supply, Rand concludes “eVTOL aircraft are unlikely to be transformational today, and we did not find a major command ready to sponsor an eVTOL capability today.”
Air Force stakeholders did indicate that autonomous flight and increased range, payload and hover capability would enhance the attractiveness of eVTOL aircraft, the report noted.
The Air Force has so far supported the nascent U.S. eVTOL industry by awarding tens of millions of dollars in small business contracts to startups through the Agility Prime program run by the AFWerx innovation unit within the Air Force Research Laboratory.
But Rand questions the program’s value. “Agility Prime’s goals most align to a shape-the-market strategy, but the eVTOL market is not a good fit,” the report says. “Instead, a survey-the-market strategy is appropriate and low risk for eVTOL today.”
Injecting capital into eVTOL companies is not likely to have Agility Prime’s desired effect of shaping the domestic industry, Rand says. Instead it recommends the program should focus instead on two lines of effort.
The first is to lead acquisition and experimentation efforts and buy, lease or acquire a few of the most-capable eVTOLs for small-scale operational use and live experiments. So far, Agility Prime has provided funds for flight testing, including flying contractor-owned and -operated aircraft on Air Force bases. Rand recommends Agility Prime procures eVTOLs to transport security forces at Malmstrom AFB, Montana, missile fields and to participate in live exercises to get feedback from users and “avoid the defense valley of death.”
The second recommended line of effort for Agility Prime is to sustain relationships with eVTOL companies but foster non-monetary collaboration in pursuit of autonomous flight. This will permit it to monitor the technology and market and share knowledge with interested government entities. Rand also highlights eVTOL supply chain risks such as foreign sources with which Agility Prime should monitor and communicate.
“Many barriers exist to transitioning emerging commercial technologies, suggesting a need for the Air Force to develop and test new acquisition processes before the next game-changing commercial technology is discovered,” the report says. The military value and market sensitivity to military investment should be weighed before another “Prime” program is launched, Rand cautions.
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