Aviation Week Doubles eVTOL Forecast; Expects 2,000 Deliveries By 2030

A new forecast from Aviation Week’s fleet data team calls for 2,000 commercial deliveries of electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicles by 2030, double the 1,000 units predicted in last year’s study. 

By 2040, Aviation Week’s projections call for nearly 12,000 eVTOL deliveries worldwide, marking a 20% increase from the 2023 forecast of 10,000. And it sees 33,000 eVTOL deliveries by 2050, up 10% from 30,000 predicted last year. 

Despite doubling its 2030 estimate to 2,000 aircraft, Aviation Week’s fleet data team still describes its forecast as “pragmatic,” reflecting industry headwinds ranging from shortcomings with batteries to timeline delays and a punishing fundraising environment that appears unlikely to change soon. 

The increase over last year’s estimates largely boils down to EHang’s type certification and launch of deliveries of its EH216-S late last year, which front loads the projections with more vehicles delivered earlier in the forecast period. Many of EHang’s customers are local governments in China, however, presenting a relatively artificial market environment that will not be replicable in other regions like Europe or the U.S. 

Retirement assumptions in the new forecast were modified to reflect an average lifespan of nine years, leading to a projected eVTOL in-service fleet (ISF) of roughly 25,000 aircraft by 2050, compared to a 2023 estimate of 19,000 aircraft in service.

The new forecast also calls for a combined 500 new-build electric conventional-takeoff-and-landing (eCTOL) and short-takeoff-and-landing (eSTOL) aircraft in the four-nine seat class by 2030, rising to 2,500 deliveries by 2040, and 8,000 deliveries—or an ISF of 5,000 aircraft—by 2050. Crucially, the study does not consider conversions or retrofits of preexisting aircraft.

The new estimates were constructed by splitting the market into three primary use cases: passenger, cargo and “other” (emergency services, agriculture use, etc). Military use cases were excluded from the analysis. The various use cases encompass three size classes: One-four-passenger eVTOL, five-nine-passenger eVTOL and four-nine-passenger eCTOL/eSTOL.

The forecast period begins exclusively with passenger operations, but quickly moves onto cargo. Use cases in the “other” category, by comparison, are slower to expand as range and loitering capabilities will likely limit eVTOL usage as a part of emergency services, while agricultural applications are expected to be dominated by drones, not considered in this forecast. By 2050, a relatively stable balance of 57% passenger/32% cargo/11% “other” is predicted.

As for size class, the five-nine-passenger eVTOL class eventually overtakes the one-four-passenger class in deliveries across all three use cases, although this happens later for passenger operations and sooner for the cargo and “other” use cases, which depend on larger capacities and maximum takeoff weights to fulfill their missions. 

For eCTOL/eSTOL, the four-nine-passenger class grows steadily for passenger and “other” categories, with an initial spike in cargo operations owing to the expected introduction of Beta Technologies’ Alia CTOL in 2025. Across the forecast, eCTOL/eSTOL estimates are generally lower than eVTOL across both size classes considered.

The assumptions underpinning Aviation Week’s forecast are the same as last year. No black swan events or major AAM-related crash incidents are contemplated in the figures. Certification progress is predicted to continue at the current rate, and no unforeseen issues related to public acceptance of eVTOLs are foreseen.

The fleet data team believes that manufacturing rates of AAM aircraft will be more akin to traditional aviation—not automobiles. That said, these figures are still high compared to helicopter production rates. Other non-certification/nonproduction issues that may impact the market include pilot availability, delays to commercial autonomy and market consolidation. Lastly, ground infrastructure installation is forecast to expand at a similar rate to AAM vehicle production, and therefore should not pose a serious obstacle to the industry’s future growth.